What happens to the anti-war block of the EU without Marine Le Pen?

A political bomb in France: the long -standing leader of the Right’s National Party (National reunion) Marine Le Pen was forbidden Of the candidacy for a political position for the next five years after a Paris court found him guilty of diverting the equivalent of $ 4 million in EU funds to pay members of the National Rally working not for the European Parliament.

She also received a four -year suspended prison sentence and ordered to pay a fine of € 100,000. It remains to be seen whether the court decision means a condemnation to political death for it (it can be canceled if it earns an appeal), but it is certainly a devastating blow and a major upheaval of French politics.

This is important because the latest polls watch Marine Le Pen leading in the presidential race for 2027, projecting 34 to 37% of the votes in the first round. This would guarantee him a place in runoff, where his chances would depend on the capacity of all the other parts to merge around his potential opponent.

At first glance, the disqualification of the PEN could weaken anti-war voices in France and the EU by reducing their cohesion and their visibility. His party is a founding member of Patriots for Europe (PFE)The third largest political group in the European Parliament, where he is with influential parties with similar views such as the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban Fidesz and Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo SalviniLega. All were vocal criticisms of unconditional EU support in Ukraine, Anti-Russian sanctionsand the Dogmatic refusal Get in direct diplomacy with Moscow to end the war.

To highlight the opposition to the current motivation of militarization in Europe, the patriots vote Against the resolution of the European Parliament in early March which approved the equivalent of the president of the Ursula von der Leyen commission at $ 900 billion “Réaroir” plan. Criticism rejected This plan as unrealistic given the casual tax strait in which the continent is and the lack of assessment of unified threats throughout Europe – if you are in Portugal, for example, your perception of the Russian threat would be very different from Poland.

The opposition to the “rear plan” had transpartisan while the patriots were joined by the Anti-war left factionAnd some dissidents of the social democratic group of the center-left, as members of the Italian Democratic Party. At the level of the Member States, the national interest always prevails over ideological cohesion: the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni – ideologically close to Orban and the Pen – and the Spanish Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez The two reject the “rear” concept (even if the Poorly directed socialists In the European Parliament, voted incomprehensibly to support the plan of Von der Leyen).

Le Pen’s experience and networks in Europe have made her a key player to ensure the cohesion of these forces sharing the same ideas. Back in France, she systematically criticized Macron’s hyper-activism on Ukraine and rejected her idea of ​​sending French peace soldiers to Ukraine as “Pure madness” – Confitting the fact that, in the absence of a Russian agreement to such a deployment (which will not be to come), these forces would become targets for the Russian army.

She too firmly opposite Macron’s ideas on the dilution of national sovereignty on defense issues, such as his loose speech to extend the French nuclear umbrella to the rest of Europe.

Of course, this has aroused lively speculation about political motivations behind the French court’s decision to prohibit Le Pen from appearing. While its predictable right allies stand next to herYanis Varoufakis, an improbable ally, punishment “The breathtaking hypocrisy” of the liberal media by denouncing the imprisonment by the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan of his main opponent, the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, while rejoicing the French lessons “doing the same”.

Some also tried to parallel with Romania, where the winner of the first round of the presidential elections Calin Georgescu If his victory had canceled, and himself forbidden from redirecting apparently fragile land. Like Le Pen, Georgescu ran as an anti-statement flag holder, and also opposed a new war in Ukraine.

However, we must not rush towards precipitated conclusions. The legal affair against Le Pen seems to be robust. There is no evidence that the court’s decision was politically motivated – France has a history of disqualification of politicians. In 2017, the consumer conservative candidate François Fillon was disqualified For the diversion of money on a much smaller scale than Le Pen.

What raises questions in the case of the PEN is not so much the veracity of allegations against it as an immediate application of the five -year ban, even before any appeal is resolved. Above all, this period covers the next presidential elections in 2027. This urgency led criticism to Accuse the judges to violate the right of the people to freely choose their representatives, in particular given the popularity of the PEN. However, it seems indisputable that the judges appreciated the discretionary power to do so.

In the short term, the news could be a boon for Macron and its liberal allies in France and the EU. On the one hand, it can be to give some breathing space to the besieged centrist government led by the choice of Macron, François Bayrou. The national rally and the left have enough influence combined in the French parliament to oust the government, that they already done With the predecessor of Bayrou, another centrist. However, redo, although mathematically possible, could try Macron to call another parliamentary election, from which his most formidable enemy would be excluded.

The longer term impact would depend on more factors. Would be Jordan BardellaThe 29 -year -old Pen protégé and the presumed presidential candidate (in case his appeal fails) prove to be an effective leader? Currently, he is the chief of the patriots for Europe in the European Parliament, which gives him visibility and a network with the parties sharing the same ideas in Europe.

His youth and inexperience could be a challenge to keep the anti-war faction together. However, the Patriots network has other experienced representatives, such as Orban and Salvini, on which relying in this regard.

In the end, the call and the resilience of anti-war and pro-diplomacy voices in Europe do not depend only on personalities, but wider trends, such as fatigue of war, changes in American foreign policy under President Donald Trump, the situation of the battlefield in Ukraine, social and economic pressures from the Drive militarizationAnd the growing perception that European audiences were not really engaged by the elites in an appropriate democratic debate on the nature of the threats that Europe is confronted.

These currents exist and they will find their champions, whatever the personal fate of Marine Le Pen.