What experts predict for Sunday’s Patriots-Bengals game

Patriots

No writer, pundit or prognosticator predicted that New England would beat Cincinnati in the season opener.

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There was a time in the 20-plus year history of this space when anyone who dared to bet against the New England Patriots was met with the unleashed wrath of what had become a snooty fan base (poor Jimmy Kempski). The worst that can happen now is Patriots fans checking in and making sure you’re mentally okay if you choose their team.

In what may be a first for this award-winning (or nearly so) space, no writer, pundit, prognosticator, or even llama sniffing around for a snack picked the New England Patriots to beat the Cincinnati Bengals in Sunday’s season opener. Only a select few even picked Jerod Mayo and his crew to cover (+8.5).

This is a far cry from trying to get someone fired because he or she might have picked the Cardinals 16 years ago, during what turned out to be a snowstorm at Gillette Stadium (note: this is just one example; there is no evidence that anyone was stupid enough to think that).

New coach, new QB, same problems at the line of scrimmage, where the Patriots addressed their dire need on the offensive side of the ball with a couple of draft picks (tackle Caedan Wallace in the third round; guard Hayden Robinson in the fourth) and not much else. Aside from keeping Hog Whisperer Dante Scarnecchia on speed dial (he’s already said “no”), the Patriots did about as much to protect rookie Drake Maye as they did to conduct a fair and viable head coaching search, which was hiring Mike Vrabel.

If Robert Kraft’s PR team weighed 300 pounds each, it would be the most impenetrable offensive line in history. But the one that matters is always a mess.

Starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett earned the job before the season largely because of his leadership skills. But he’ll also be the sacrificial lamb until the line gets its act together enough (or nearly so) to seriously consider Maye. Or until Kraft gets even more disappointed about being left out of prime time and demands to see the kid. Whichever comes first.

“I’m very confident that these guys are focused on the plan, working out the details and I’m excited for them to really make an impact on this team because it all starts with them,” Brissett said. “I know what they’re capable of and I can’t wait for them to show it.”

At least someone is. Check back with us on Sunday, Jacoby, so we can see how you’re feeling then.

This week’s predictions:

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Bengals 26, Patriots 17. “Joe Burrow is back healthy for the Bengals in this game, which immediately makes the Bengals a title contender. Being at home is even more of an advantage against a limited-manpower Pats team. New coach Jerod Mayo will have this team playing tough football, but in the second half, it will be Burrow who takes over as Jacoby Brissett struggles.”

CBS Sports Staff: Six of seven take the Bengals (-8.5).

Jimmy Kempski, Philly Votes: Bengals (-8). “After watching the Patriots’ offense in just one joint practice during training camp, I’m extremely confident that they won’t be (a) able to protect the quarterback or (b) able to score many points.”

Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times:Bengals 31, Patriots 13. “These aren’t the Patriots of old. Cincinnati should win easily. The Bengals’ pass rush will create all sorts of problems for New England, and Joe Burrow and his teammates should be able to handle it.”

Vic Tafur, The Athletic:The Bengals. “Burrow also had Ja’Marr Chase back in practice on Wednesday, and while everyone remains mum on his status for Week 1, Burrow said his star receiver is “ready to play.” The Patriots are not.

The Athletic Staff: Bengals across the board.

Greg Side, The Miami Herald:Bengals 17, Patriots 6. “No Bill Belichick on the New England bench for the first time since 1999, and the Patriots are the biggest underdogs in Week 1 and on a 5-14-1 run against the spread. Cincy star WR Ja’Marr Chase is back after his contract mess, though his status for Sunday remained uncertain Thursday — but Joe Burrow and the Gals at home should handle the Pats’ rebuild either way. It’s only a matter of time before NE turns to rookie QB Drake Maye. Early October?

ESPN Staff: All 11 pick Bengals.

USA Today Staff: All Bengals.

MMQB Staff: Same.

Gerry Dulac, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:Bengals 28, Patriots 9. “A healthy Joe Burrow is a big difference maker for the Bengals, who saw their two-year reign as division champions end last season. Just when you were starting to get used to the Patriots without Tom Brady, now there’s no Bill Belichick either.”

Vinnie Iyer, The Sports News: Bengals 27, Bengals 14. “The Bengals should be thrilled to have a healthy Joe Burrow running the offense again, with the Patriots defense in transition without Bill Belichick. They can slow down some of Burrow’s support, but not all of it. The Patriots’ offense, regardless of QB, can’t hope to keep up, and they’ll also face heavy pass rush and tough coverages once they’re no longer in a position to keep running.”

Bill Bender, Sports News: Bengals 25, Patriots 17. “The biggest Week 1 line has the Bengals at home in Week 1, and Joe Burrow and the starters have played more in the preseason this year. That’s because Cincinnati has lost Week 1 in four of the last five seasons, and the only win came in overtime against Minnesota in 2021. The Patriots are starting a new chapter with Jerod Mayo, and the key will be avoiding turnovers on the road. Get this line now before it’s released later this week.”

Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Bengals.

Chris Simms, Pro Football Talk: Bengals.

It says here: Bengals 17, Patriots 13. The 2024 Patriots could look a lot like the 2024 Red Sox; a team that isn’t quite ready for the next step, but that step could be closer than you think. Or they could end up with the No. 1 pick, which they’ll have to use on a lineman. That’s not exactly the kind of talk that lights up the board. Speaking of which, have you seen the lighthouse?