What does Trump’s release day mean for prices and prices: NPR

On Wednesday, President Trump should unveil what he called “reciprocal prices” – taxes on goods imported from a wide range of countries aimed at penalizing them for their commercial barriers.

It is a push that he marks as a “liberation day”, promising that she will lead to foreign tariff income to set up for American tax reductions and the reduction of the deficit, and will stimulate a renaissance in American manufacturing.

But the commitment has subcontracted the pain that should be felt by American consumers that economists expect to pay higher prices – and by American farmers and exporters intended for reprisals by other countries.

Some American manufacturers will be injured by higher costs for imported materials. And Traditional economists are skeptical about what prices will bring back as much income as Trump has promised.

Although the details on its plans are summary, the Yale budget lab estimated The program could cost the average American consumer from $ 2,700 to $ 3,400 per year.

Uncertainty about politics has turned the economy. The S&P 500 stock market index has just closed its Worse quarter Since 2022, and consumer confidence has recently struck 12 years old.

Trump had promised that the prices will reflect what other countries impose on American goods. But lately, he seemed to moderate his tone.

“They took advantage of us,” Trump told journalists on Monday. “And we are going to be very nice compared to what they were. The figures will be lower than what they billed us and, in some cases, perhaps much lower.”

Few details on countries, what products will be struck

Trump’s economic policy has been unique not only in its aggressive rhetoric around prices, but also in vagueness and unpredictability surrounding its political ads.

Until now, he has imposed prices on steel and aluminum, Chinese products and certain goods from Mexico and Canada. But he also threatened, delayed or withdrawn prices on a range of other goods, often telegraphing new potential movements while providing few details.

Reciprocal prices are another example of this model. A Memo of February 13 Throwing the start of the process, by asking the members of the cabinet and advisers to study how “non -reciprocal” trade relations could harm the American economy, then submit relationships that propose means to trade with a given “reciprocal” country.

At the time, the Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, said that these studies would be carried out by April 1. “We will give the president the opportunity to start on April 2, if he wanted it,” said Lunick.

This always leaves flexibility in the moment of imposing the prices. Although it is not clear when specific prices come into force, the press secretary of the White House, Karoline Leavitt, said on Tuesday that they would be imposed “immediately”.

Trump’s tone on prices has recently softened

The White House did not give any details on the Trump countries provides for a price first. However, while addressing journalists this week, Leavitt may have provided clues, brandishing a graph showing steep prices that Japan, Mexico, Canada and the European Union impose on certain American goods.

Trump also sometimes said that prices will take into account “non -pricing barriers” such as subsidies and regulations. But he has not mentioned this lately.

“In fact, I will probably be more indulgent than reciprocal because if I was reciprocal, it would be – it would be very difficult for people,” Trump said in an interview last week with Newsmax.

Trump left the door open to negotiations, although he insisted that he wanted “not too much” exemptions from reciprocal prices.

Will the prices be large or targeted?

A more conventional approach to put pressure on other countries to reduce their prices could be to specifically target a country or a good, said Doug Irwin, an economy teacher at Dartmouth College.

“What is less normal is when you have a much more vague goal, a wide brush approach from many countries, many possible sectors,” he said. “Things are unfair in different ways with different countries. And it is very difficult to have a uniform and general approach of all this.”

John Veroneau, an American trade representative of the George W. Bush administration, has agreed that targeted prices are more effective.

“There are unfair commercial practices. So, insofar as you threaten the prices … This would require a very surgical approach,” said Veroneau. “These prices will probably exceed the number of American exporters who complain to this administration or to previous administrations on very specific trade barriers.”

Veroneau added that this is symptomatic of a more important problem with the way Trump talks about prices as a solution to a wide range of political problems, some of which conflict with each other.

“The problem which, I think, surrounds so many comments and comments from Trump on the prices is, what is the purpose of the price?” He said.