There’s a lot of talk — and rightly so — about what America might look like if former President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office.
But there is a significant chance that not only will Trump lose again, but that Democrats will once again find themselves in control of the White House, Senate and House of Representatives in early 2025.
It’s not the most likely outcome, but it’s worth taking seriously, especially given the retirements of Senators Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin, two key Democratic obstacles to President Joe Biden’s agenda, which will be removed from office next year.
Here’s how Democrats could achieve a three-peat again — and what could happen if they do.
How Biden could win – and have Democratic majorities in Congress
As things stand, Trump has a slight lead over Biden nationally, and the outgoing president faces a range of challenges as he seeks a second term. But the election is still six months away, the polls are changing, and who knows what might happen between now and then?
Democrats are widely considered the favorites to take back the House, with nearly 20 Republican incumbents fighting to hold on to districts won by Biden in 2020. Several of those seats are in California and New York, while two others are in Arizona, where the Democrats are present. expecting major political benefits from a possible ballot measure on abortion rights.
The Senate will be a more difficult elevator. With Manchin retiring, Democrats are all but guaranteed to lose at least one Senate seat, reducing any potential majority to 50-50 — and that’s only a majority if Biden wins, and Vice President Kamala Harris is about to break the tie vote.
Senators Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio will need to win for Democrats to maintain the majority in the Senate. Puce Somodevilla/Getty Images
The Democrats’ chances depend critically on maintaining tough seats in Ohio and Montana, two states that Trump won handily in 2016 and 2020, while holding on to their seats everywhere else, including Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. and Michigan.
It will be tough, but it’s possible that Senators Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio will hang on — as they did in 2018 — and that Democrats will again find themselves with a slim majority.
Democrats could have the votes needed to codify abortion protections nationwide
The low-hanging fruit for Democrats, if they find a winning trio, would be to pass legislation protecting abortion rights nationally – probably something akin to the Health Protection Act of Women, which would overturn existing state-level abortion bans that have emerged in the years since. The Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
Biden supports it and House Democrats have already voted for it twice, once in 2021 and again in 2022.
The reason they couldn’t pass the bill in the Senate in 2022 was that Manchin and Sinema opposed eliminating the chamber’s “filibuster” rule, which requires 60 votes to pass. adopt a law. Manchin was the only Democrat to adamantly oppose the bill.
Manchin and Sinema, two major obstacles to Biden’s party agenda, will not be in the Senate next year. Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images
Besides domestic abortion protection, Democrats could tackle another legislative issue blocked by Manchin and Sinema in 2022: voting rights.
Democrats have accomplished a lot in the first two years of Biden’s presidency. But they still want to do a lot of things.
Unlike the last 16 months of divided government, Biden’s first two years have been marked by numerous legislative achievements, including unprecedented climate legislation, a massive infrastructure bill, legislation to invest in the manufacturing system of the country’s semiconductors, and much more.
There are still a million things Democrats want to do — or haven’t been allowed to do before.
For an indicator of how far the party could go with a winning trio, take a look at the Congressional Progressive Caucus’ recently released “Progressive Proposal Agenda.”
It’s a laundry list of progressive policy ideas, including items that were included in the original “Build Back Better” social spending and climate bill that Manchin and Sinema ultimately helped kill.
This includes restoring the expanded child tax credit, investing $250 billion in affordable housing, passing legislation to strengthen worker unions, legalizing marijuana, granting statehood to Washington, D.C. and providing full tuition at public colleges and universities.
Not all of these policies will be implemented, and it’s hard to say for sure what Biden would pursue with full control in 2025.
But progressives have shown in the first two years of Biden’s presidency that they hold more influence than any other faction in the party, and it will be worth paying close attention to them again whenever Democrats take over power – whether next year or several years from now.
businessinsider
