Getty imagesA significant number of labor deputies threaten against the government’s social government reform plan with regard to the House of Commons Next week.
The reforms are designed To reduce the overall invoice of well-being of the working age by around 5 billion pounds sterling A year by the end of the decade.
Rebel deputies signed a amendment to the legislation which makes a series of objections, including a lack of official consultation and impact assessments.
BBC VERIFY explains the details of the reforms and their impact possible.
What advantages would be reduced?
The government wants to save money by:
- Make more difficult for people to access personal independence payments (PIP)
- reduce the incapacity rate
The advantage of incapacity – which is mainly paid by the health element of universal credit – goes to those deemed unable to work for health reasons.
This advantage should be reduced by 50% in cash for new applicants from April 2026. For existing applicants, it should be held flat in cash until 2029-30 – which means that payments will not go in accordance with inflation.
The government estimates that these two changes will save 3 billion pounds sterling per year by the end of the decade.
PIP is paid to people with a long -term physical or mental health or a handicap and who needs support. The secretary of work and pensions Liz Kendall A recognized that almost 20% of recipients are in work.
The government plans to make people more difficult for people to claim the “daily life” element of PIP from 2026-27.
As part of the current evaluation system, applicants are noted at zero scale to 12 by a health professional on daily tasks such as washing, dressing and the preparation of food.
Under the proposed change, people should mark at least four on a task, excluding people with lower scores who would have previously qualified for the benefit.
The Government estimates that this will save 4.5 billion additional sterling pounds per year of the social protection bill by the end of the decade.
Why does the government try to reduce social spending?
He is concerned about the increase in the number of people claiming age services opening in recent years and the implications of this trend for public finances.
Last fall, the government planned that the number of applicants for the PIP opening age in England, Scotland and Wales Go from 2.7 million in 2023-24 to 4.3 million in 2029-30an increase of 1.6 million.
At that time, the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR), the government’s official forecastist, projected that the overall cost of the working age system would drop from 48.5 billion pounds sterling in 2024 to 75.7 billion sterling pounds by 2030.
This would have represented a 1.7% increase in the size of the British economy to 2.2%, or roughly the size of the current expenses in defense.
The ministers argue that this increasing bill must be controlled and that changes in the social protection system are part of this effort.
It should be noted that – even after taking into account the planned cuts – the OBR projected This bill continues to increase cash to 72.3 billion pounds sterling by 2030.
And the Department of Labor and Pensions (DWP) projected The total number of PIP beneficiaries of the working age increase by 1.2 million between 2023-24 and 2029-30-after the cuts.
In this sense, the main effect of PIP cuts would be to reduce the increase in applicants who would have taken place otherwise.
What would be the impact of reforms?
The government Official impact assessment estimates that around 250,000 additional people (including 50,000 children) will be left in “relative poverty” (after housing costs) by 2030 due to reforms.
However, this evaluation included the impact of the government deciding not to carry out the social assistance reforms provided for by the previous conservative administration, which government analysts have tried would have pushed 150,000 additional people in poverty.
Certain charitable organizations and research organizations have suggested that this means that the government’s estimate of 250,000 underestimates the impact of its own reforms, because the reforms of the previous administration have never been really implemented.
I take the Joseph Rowntree Foundation suggested that the real impact of the poverty of government changes could therefore be up to the task 400,000 (Addition of the figure of 250,000 to the figure of 150,000 to generate an estimate of the total numbers affected).
However, the evaluation of the government’s impact warns to simply add the two figures together, noting that “some people are affected by more than one (reform) measure”, which means that this approach may count individuals.
Taking this into account, the resolution group Foundation has estimated The fact that the net effect of government reforms means “at least 300,000” people entering relative poverty by 2030.
What about the impact on employment?
The government said its reforms were not just about saving money, but helping people at work.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves told Sky News In March 2025, “I am absolutely certain that our reforms, instead of pushing people into poverty, will put people at work. And we know that if you go from well-being to work, you are much less likely to be in poverty.”
To this end, the government gradually increases the standard allowance of universal credit – the basic sum paid to cover the beneficiaries’ life costs – from £ 5 per week by 2029-30.
It should be a clear advantage for 3.8 million households and the government maintains that it will also increase incentives so that people work rather than claiming incapacity services.
The government is also investing an additional 1 billion pounds per year by 2029-30 for additional support to eliminate people from inactivity and employment.
What are the objections of the rebels?
Rebel deputies say that people with disabilities have not been consulted on the proposed reforms.
They also say that there has been no evaluation of the global impacts of employment by the OBR.
It is true that the government has not consulted people with disabilities on specific pip cuts and social benefits, although it is now consultant on the wider reform package.
It is also true that the OBR has not yet carried out an assessment of the impact on full employment, although the forecaster says that he will make one before the fall budget.
Meanwhile, the Resolution Foundation made its own estimate of the impact of the use of the overall reform set.
He estimates that the total increase in employment could be between 60,000 and 105,000, although he stressed that these figures are very uncertain.
This positive employment figure contrasts with the 800,000 people who should lose part of their PIP payments by 2029-30 and the 3 million families of people who will see a reduction in their incapacity services.
