What a disrupted Middle East means for Trump and US allies in the Gulf

When Donald J. Trump was the last president of the United States, the wealthy Persian Gulf monarchies enjoyed fairly harmonious relations with his administration. As Mr. Trump prepares to return to the White House, Gulf leaders have generally welcomed him.

But this time, the Gulf states and Mr. Trump appear to differ on several fundamental issues, such as Israel and Iran. Divergences over energy policies could also be a source of friction.

There are unlikely to be any major tensions or ruptures with US allies in the Gulf. But Mr. Trump will face a region that has seen drastic changes since Israel launched its war on Gaza in response to the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, in which Israeli officials say around 1,200 people were killed and around 250 people were killed. taken hostage.

The war in Gaza, in which at least 45,000 people have been killed, according to the enclave’s health officials, has reverberated throughout the region. In Lebanon, the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah has been battered by more than a year of fighting against Israel. And in Syria, rebels overthrew the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

Today, as Mr. Trump fills his cabinet with Iran hawks and fervent defenders of Israel, Gulf leaders are publicly calling for a softer stance on Iran and a harder line on with regard to Israel.

They also called on the United States to remain engaged in the region.

For now, the Trump administration appears eager to engage with Gulf powers Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.