Wells Fargo expects only two Fed rate cuts this year, one each in the third and fourth quarters.

Wells Fargo says that as the year progresses, the disinflationary wind in goods will likely fade, but that slower increases in services prices should keep core inflation down.

In the coming year, they expect:

• moderate housing inflation
• ease pressure on goods-related services like car insurance
• slowdown in growth in employment costs

all this contributes to reducing service inflation.

In the March FOMC minutes, WF states that after another month of strong employment and inflation data, it appears that the ten FOMC members who had planned three or more cuts at the March meeting are are deceived.