Benefits
In 2020, writer/director Leigh Whannell reimagined The Invisible Man as an incredibly relevant story about extreme gaslighting. Made for Blumhouse on a budget of $7 million, the film did gangbusters ($28 million opening) before being forced to close prematurely due to the pandemic with a still impressive domestic total of 64 .9 million and a worldwide total of $139 million. Now the filmmaker takes on another classic Universal monster with Wolf Man, which features TV stars (Christopher Abbott, Julia Garner), family survival stakes and a small-scale bottle location. Our panel predicts openness in middle and high teens.
Disadvantages
While werewolves have played integral roles in major franchises like Underworld, Goosebumps, and Twilight, the last time the hairy beast was front and center in a major theatrical release was Universal’s The Wolfman in 2010 directed by Benicio del Toro. This struggling production grossed $62.1 million domestic and $142.6 million WW on a hefty budget of $150 million. Hopefully, Blumhouse keeping costs under control ($25 million before P&A) will result in profits and a potential franchise this time around. One potential obstacle could be the creature’s design, which was botched at the Universal Studios theme park much to Whannell’s chagrin.
Benefits
After Monday’s actual numbers Den of Thieves 2: Pantera delivered exactly to our panel’s highest prediction of a $15 million opening, putting it ahead of Moufasa which also worked well. We said it was everyone’s game last weekend and we meant it. This is not the case in this context, where Wolfman seeks to destroy competition. We are still waiting Lair to potentially surpass $30 million by Sunday, on its way to at least matching the original film’s $44.9 million domestic haul.
Disadvantages
Den of Thieves 2 is caught in the crosshairs this weekend between flooding R-rated adult audiences Wolfman and a family audience still attending The Lion King (which has now become PG-rated counterprogramming). CinemaScore was a “B+” while PostTrak audiences gave Lair 3 and a half stars, so word of mouth isn’t great. A fall to third position is not excluded.
Benefits
In frame 4 Moufasa received a huge boost on Saturday with $6.66 million for an overall weekend total of $14.2 million to place it comfortably at number two. Will we see another overperforming executive this time around? Maybe, with even a small hope of hitting Den of Thieves 2 third since lions are the only family game in town until Dogman on the 31st.
Disadvantages
We’re now on day 27 of Disney’s typical 60-day theatrical exclusivity window, but we don’t see this title holding up. Moana 2 has. In fact, this weekend we’re watching Moufasa do the same or less than Moana 2 made in frame 7 ($6.5 million). As of Monday, this title was at $190.7 million domestically, so it will likely cross the $200 million mark by Sunday. Worldwide, the film currently sits at a total of $543.2 million, meaning it may never reach $650 million, let alone $700 million. Is this ultimately a profitable brand extension for the studio? Yes. Do these numbers suggest more Lion King films in the future? Doubtful, this entry was barely scratched thanks to a Christmas surge.
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