Wealthy travelers seeking sun, sand and luxury flock to the Caribbean paradise near Haiti, where armed gangs dominate.

Its success stands in stark contrast to that of the country across the Caribbean island of Hispaniola, Haiti, where spiraling crime and violence is ruining the nation.

President Luis Abinader takes credit for the Dominican Republic’s boom, pointing to his business-friendly, drama-free style of governing that has made the nation a darling of investors and tourists. In doing so, it also made him the favorite in Sunday’s presidential election.

The vote is “a referendum on the actions we have taken over the past four years,” Abinader wrote in a social media post earlier this week. “The best is yet to come.”

The Dominican Republic’s economy is expected to grow 4.4% this year. This country of 11 million inhabitants recently overtook Ecuador (18 million inhabitants) to become the seventh largest economy in the hemisphere.

But critics say the growth is due to mounting public debt, bloated social programs and fears that chaos in Haiti will spread.

“The government has been very successful in promoting the idea of ​​economic well-being that people on the streets simply don’t feel,” said Leonel Fernández, president from 1996 to 2000 and then from 2004 to 2012, and number two in the country. candidate for this weekend’s vote.

Surveys show that inflation, the economy, crime and Haiti are among voters’ top concerns. But those same surveys also show that Abinader is headed for re-election.

Abinader and his Modern Revolutionary Party are on track to obtain 60% of the vote, followed by Fernández and his Popular Force party with 25%, according to a Gallup-RCC Media poll published by Diario Libre on May 9. Dominican Liberation Party, trails with 11% support. Other polls show a closer race, but with Abinader still in the lead.

If a candidate receives more than half of the votes, he or she will be the winner. Otherwise, the top two will face off in a runoff on June 30, where Abinader could face a much closer race.

Abinader, 56, recognizes the risks Haiti poses to the Dominican Republic, but rejects the idea that his country has any special responsibility in repairing the neighboring nation. In Haiti, powerful gangs took over large parts of the capital as violence and hunger ravaged the country. The country recently established a transitional governing council and expects to receive a multinational security force led by Kenya, but chaos still reigns.

Although Haiti and the Dominican Republic share a 240-mile border, they are polar opposites. Abinader is trying to keep things that way, prioritizing the construction of a border wall, ramping up deportations and urging the international community to intercede.

Haiti “is one of the greatest challenges the Dominican Republic has faced in several decades,” Abinader said at an event in Washington last week. Increased border security has “depleted the resources we need for economic development.”

Wall Street appears to approve of Abinader’s strategy. Although he increased government debt by 30% during his term, the additional yield investors demand for holding the country’s foreign bonds has fallen by more than half since mid-2022, according to data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. Barclays Plc and BancTrust recommend that investors purchase dollar-denominated securities. Fund managers from Vontobel Asset Management to M&G Investment Management and Eaton Vance also tout the country’s local ratings.

“The government has actually done a very good job, not only of pleasing investors, but also of pleasing its own population,” said Carlos de Sousa, portfolio manager at Vontobel Asset Management in Zurich.

Tourist wave

Abinader was executive president of Grupo Abicor, a construction company owned by his family focused on tourism development, and director of the National Association of Hotels and Restaurants, before winning the 2020 elections with 53% of the vote.

As president, he stayed in his wheelhouse. After the pandemic, the Dominican Republic reopened its doors to tourists much earlier than most Caribbean countries, and it is still reaping the rewards. Last year, the country welcomed more than 10 million visitors, a record. (International tourism has collapsed in Haiti, as airlines suspended flights and Royal Caribbean stopped cruises to its private peninsula in Haiti.)

Abinader promotes the industry as a way to strengthen neglected regions of the country and diversify the economy. In total, the government says there are 19 major projects underway worth more than $2.9 billion – from cruise ports and airports to massive hotel projects.

Yet for many Dominicans, the influx of visitors is associated not with progress but with rising prices and gentrification. Housing costs jumped 24% between 2020 and 2024, and the increases were even greater in tourist-heavy areas where there has been an influx of foreign buyers.

“The general discourse in the country is that tourism is going to save us and bring us work and income,” said Moraima Capellán Pichardo, who works with an environmental group called Cabarete Sostenible. “But what we’re seeing is people being displaced by rising prices and homes being built that no one here could ever afford.”

Few projects reflect the government’s strategy like Punta Bergantín. On 2,400 acres of waterfront on the north coast, the government is promoting an eco-friendly resort that will include 4,000 hotel rooms, more than 2,000 residences, a golf course, a hospital, a water park and a tennis club.

Tourism officials say they already have commitments from Grupo Puntacana, in alliance with Melia Hotels International; Grupo Martinón, which manages the Hyatt Ziva and Hyatt Zilara brands; and Karisma Hotels.

Andrés Marranzini, who heads the Punta Bergantín project, says more than half of the $800 million needed for the first stage has been committed.

The project is also expected to include a 148-acre movie theater land. Fast and Furious Star Diesel’s One Race Films signed a memorandum of understanding with Abinader in 2021 to develop it. One Race Firms referred calls regarding this effort to its talent agency, which did not respond to emails or messages. Marranzini said the project “is definitely happening.”

Last month, officials announced that Bergantín would also include an innovation center, dubbed “Silicon Beach.” They plan to bring together government agencies, academia and the private sector to create a technology incubator and accelerator. The authorities have not yet set the price of the complex.

One of the country’s most important goals is to become a semiconductor manufacturing hub for a U.S. market that is trying to wean itself off Asia. Although this goal is still far away, these types of projects could attract the type of talent and workers needed to make this possible, according to Economy Minister Pável Isa Contreras.

Juan Ureña, a 74-year-old carpenter, visited Bergantín on a recent weekend after hearing campaign ads on the radio that made him believe the area was ready to welcome thousands of tourists and movie stars. Hollywood. But aside from a newly paved road and a sign warning you not to enter, there wasn’t much to see.

“They’ve been talking about it for years now and there’s nothing here,” Ureña said, standing next to a densely wooded beachside lot. “I feel like they’re just talking about it to get our votes.”

The government says its broader vision for the country will take time and that construction at Punta Bergantín will begin in earnest in August – the same month Abinader hopes to begin his second term.