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Each spring, the Bay of Delaware attracts thousands of migratory birds and horseshoe crabs, creating a natural spectacle. For almost 40 years, scientists have gathered here to follow influenza viruses in the population of birds, hoping to catch the first signs of potentially dangerous epidemics.
This year, however, the researchers noticed something surprising. Despite the growing threat of H5N1, they did not find the virus in the excrement of the birds they have collected, and “we do not know exactly why,” said Dr. Lisa Kercher, director of laboratory operations ‘Children’s Research Hospital St. Jude.
This unexpected observation has hoped that scientists could have more time to prevent future influenza epidemics, offering new perspectives on how viruses propagate and potentially soften the fears of a new pandemic.
For more than two decades, H5N1 has been closely monitored, because it is one of the most deadly influenza viruses to infect birds. The virus spreads through birds but also plays quickly, which raises concerns about its ability to infect humans in the future. Consequently, H5N1’s ability to infect a wide variety of species has made it a goal of global health experts.
However, recent surveillance has revealed interesting results. The virus seems to evolve through a process called reassortment, where two different viruses infect the same animal genes and exchange, leading to greater genetic changes. Researchers are studying how it can affect the propagation of the virus in the years to come.
By analyzing the previous surveillance data collected by Dr. Robert Webster and Dr. Richard Webby, Dr Louise Moncla of the University of Pennsylvania conducted a new study. The study revealed that the epidemic of H5N1 2021 in North America was motivated by eight distinct introductions from the virus by migration of savvy and shore birds along the joy of the Atlantic and the Pacific.
Unlike the 2014 epidemic, when the aggressive slaughter prevented the virus from spreading, the new strain of 2021 continued to circulate because wild birds continued to introduce the virus into the populations of farming and poultry breeding.
Moncla and her team concluded that wild birds emerge as a key “reservoir” for H5N1 in North America and that migratory birds are crucial to prevent future epidemics.
Despite these challenges, the researchers hope. The Webby team plans to continue to monitor, knowing that their data could offer an early warning for future epidemics.
“(The birds) stop in the Bay of Delaware to refuel, then the viruses move while they are arrested, then they reduce it,” said Kercher.
“To predict bad things – be it a tornado, be it a pandemic – you need to understand normal now,” webby said. “From there, we can detect when things are different, when it changes the hosts and what motivates these transitions.”
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