Three years ago, as COVID-19 ravaged the country, California’s population did something it hadn’t done in the state’s history: It plummeted.
At the time, the state, the most populous in the country, had a population of just under 40 million. This decline, although a blow, was not unexpected. Growth had been slowing for some time. The Trump administration had curbed legal immigration. The pandemic has taken a brutal toll across the state, particularly among the elderly. As remote work options made it easier for some employees to do their jobs from anywhere, some Californians fled the state and its high cost of living.
However, if there is a natural law that applies to California, it is the one that says that what goes down will eventually go up. As HD Palmer, a spokesman for the state Department of Finance, said, drawing inspiration from one of the four California governors he advised during his long tenure: “We will be back “.
This week, Palmer was prescient. California is growing again.
An annual population report released Tuesday showed the state’s population increased last year by about 67,000 people, largely due to declining mortality and a resumption of legal immigration.
Proportionally speaking, it’s not much. Image adding, for example, the equivalent of the city of Davis. And California’s population has still not returned to the level it was in 2020, when the crisis began. But it is once again moving in its traditional direction. As of January, some 39,128,162 people lived in the Golden State, according to the new figures.
What turned the tide? A combination of factors, according to Palmer.
- HOW NIMBY ARE YOU? Consider common objections to new housing.TAKE OUR QUIZ!
Vaccinations and other public health measures have brought California’s death toll down from pandemic highs. Legal immigration has rebounded, thanks in part to the easing of restrictions on H-1B and other visas during the final year of the Trump administration.
And people are starting to think twice before leaving California for, say, Florida or Texas, depending on the state. The rate of out-of-state net migration last year was about a quarter of what it was in 2021, according to the Department of Finance.
Population is growing in 31 of the state’s 58 counties, primarily in the Bay Area, Central Valley and Inland Empire. These increases were accompanied by an increase in new housing, including a net gain of more than 21,000 units in Los Angeles County, more than 5,700 in San Diego County and nearly 2,300 in San Francisco in 2023.
Efforts to encourage more accessory dwelling units also appear to be gaining traction, with the state adding more than 22,800 last year.
California still has a way to go to return to its pre-pandemic population peak. Compared to spring 2020, the state still has more than 400,000 fewer Californians. It’s a hole the size of Bakersfield.
And the state still needs millions of new homes to address its housing shortage, not just tens of thousands.
But two of the biggest recent drags on growth – COVID and the rollback of legal immigration – appear to be in the rearview mirror, at least for now.
“We are back to positive and sustainable growth rates for the foreseeable future,” Palmer said. “We are back.”
California Daily Newspapers
