We are 6 months away from the American elections. Here’s where things stand.

• The presidential election is only 6 months away.
• President Biden and former President Trump are already competing for votes ahead of November.
• Right now, national and key state polls show a close race in what is shaping up to be a costly rematch.

With six months until Election Day, the race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is already in full swing.

In March, Biden and Trump recruited enough delegates to secure the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, respectively, ahead of their party conventions.

With Biden facing little primary opposition and Trump easily eliminating his former Republican challengers like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the stage for the November election is set. largely planted.

And this election is unlike any other contest in recent history.

Biden, a former vice president, aims to portray himself as a protector of America’s democratic institutions and as the candidate who not only rebuilds the country’s infrastructure but also strengthens middle-class families along the way.

Meanwhile, Trump – who lost to Biden in the highly contentious 2020 election – seeks to present himself as the strongest candidate on the economy and immigration, two issues on which Biden has shown significant vulnerabilities among Readership. But Trump is also hampered by his ongoing secret trial in Manhattan, the outcome of which could jeopardize his campaign.

Here is an overview of the competition situation in six months:

National polls point to a close race

National surveys show Trump has an average lead of 1.5% over Biden, according to RealClearPolling.

A recent Morning Consult poll placed Biden and Trump tied with 43% support.

The latest Harvard-Harris presidential poll shows Trump leading Biden 52% to 48%.

Meanwhile, according to the latest NPR/PBS/Marist survey, Biden led Trump 50% to 48%.

The race becomes even more unpredictable when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. enters the picture. The independent candidate has the support of 10.3% of respondents in national polls, RealClearPolling reported.

The battle will once again take place in the swing states

While national polls can provide insight into the overall race, the race will be decided in the same seven swing states that were front and center in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In 2020, Biden won the election by winning key Democratic states and all key swing states except North Carolina, which he lost by one percentage point.

Biden is already making a huge push for North Carolina. He has already visited the state several times this year. His campaign aims to have 40 staffers in the Tar Heel State by the end of May, according to the Washington Post.

It’s an early investment that his campaign hopes will help him break through among black, suburban and independent voters, which could make him the first Democratic presidential candidate to win the state since Barack Obama in 2008.

A victory in North Carolina could also give Biden breathing room as he faces challenges in other swing states. The president narrowly won Arizona and Georgia in 2020, and he will need to maintain an already fragile political coalition that includes young and minority voters, as well as a key bloc of Republicans who supported Haley but are reluctant to support his side. candidacy.

Biden will also need to get his economic message across in Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania to win those states again. That could be difficult, given voters’ dissatisfaction with the economy.

Democrats are banking on the right to abortion

Since the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the issue of abortion – now free from federal protections – was returned to the states.

While Democratic-leaning states have generally expanded and added protections for abortion access, more conservative states have sharply restricted the procedure, with many instituting six-week abortion bans, which is unpopular with large sections of the electorate.

Many Democrats in the 2022 and 2023 elections have found success thanks to their pro-choice stance, as well as their opposition to a national abortion ban long championed by conservatives.

While Trump has sought to get ahead of the curve on issues surrounding reproductive rights, supporting IVF and declaring that he does not support a national ban on abortion, Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have harassed the Republican Party on abortion, warning voters that Trump and congressional Republicans can’t do it. be trustworthy on this issue.

Biden and Harris are already strangling Trump on this issue as they campaign in states like North Carolina and Arizona – where the state’s near-total ban on abortion was recently repealed by the controlled legislature by the GOP after immense pressure from Democrats.

Gaza will also be a defining issue

Biden’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas has divided many Democrats, with young voters overwhelmingly opposed to U.S. support for Israel.

The administration’s actions have contributed to Biden’s increased vulnerability in swing states. Young voters responded to the conflict with high-profile protests on college campuses and universities across the country – including at Columbia University in New York, where an encampment on the Ivy League campus drew attention international for the intensity of student protests against the war. (The camp was disbanded earlier this week.)

In Michigan, which was won by Trump in 2016 before turning to Biden in 2020, the incumbent president continues to face intense backlash from the state’s large Arab-American population – as well as many grassroots Democrats – about Gaza.

For months, many of these voters have been calling for a permanent ceasefire, and some refused to support Biden in the Democratic primaries on the issue. In February, more than 100,000 Michigan primary voters chose “uncommitted” rather than voting for the president. Many of these voters supported Biden in 2020 but say their support for the president is not guaranteed in November.

It’s a scenario that proves difficult for Biden as he struggles to resolve one of the most important foreign policy issues of the day while responding to voter frustration and anger over the crisis humanitarian in Gaza.

And it could very well decide the outcome of the election.