Was Palisades Fire started by rekindling of a blaze from New Year’s?

PACIFIC PALISADES – Six days before waves of flames crashed into Pacific Palisades, another wildfire broke out on the same parched hillside.

Residents called 911 with reports of pre-dawn New Year’s Day fireworks and snapped pictures of the fledgling fire, which firefighters declared they had stomped out before it reached the neighborhood.

The Chronicle showed a pair of experts in wildfire investigations photos of both fire origins and their close proximity. The experts said severe winds could have rekindled smoldering embers from the earlier blaze and kickstarted the deadly Jan. 7 Palisades Fire – even six days later.

It could be months before investigators determine what started the Palisades Fire. The Los Angeles Fire Department has asked the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives to lead the inquiry, and a Bureau spokeswoman said it was “way too early to make any determinations” about the fire’s cause.

Ginger Colbrun, an ATF spokesperson, cautioned against drawing conclusions prematurely and “repeating theories.” 

Some of the American West’s worst wildfires began with undetected embers – including the 1991 Oakland hills fire, which killed 25 people, and the 2023 Maui firestorm that leveled the town of Lahaina.

Could it have happened again in this high-end Los Angeles suburb, where dry and rugged parklands surround million-dollar homes?

“Yes, without a doubt,” Terry Taylor, a retired wildland fire investigator who now works as an instructor, said of the possibility. “These sorts of fuels, especially when they are dry, the fire goes deep down into the root structure, so you may not get it out even if you dump water on it.”

Official government reports and neighbors’ observations put both fires’ origins in the same brushy hillside between the Summit neighborhood of Pacific Palisades and a trail running behind the neighborhood in Topanga State Park.

Los Angeles Fire Department spokesperson Margaret Stewart provided the Chronicle details about the New Year’s fire, but she declined to say whether the agencies were investigating a link between the fires. 

“I can’t answer that, that would be part of the investigation,” Stewart said.

It was just after midnight New Year’s Eve, and fireworks were popping off all over Los Angeles. Ari Sallus, 24, was hiking up a fire trail from his house and into Topanga State Park to take in the sweeping views above Santa Monica. He heard a loud bang nearby, then saw a bright white flash against the night sky.

Ten minutes later, Sallus said he spotted flames on the hillside ahead. He called 911.

“It was incredible – it was moving so fast,” Sallus said.

Firefighters from Los Angeles city and county rushed onto the incline with hoses and hand tools, and contained the fire at roughly nine acres, Stewart said. 

Stewart said the bulk of the work was done by 4:30 a.m., and firefighters began leaving the scene though some stayed behind to ensure the fire was extinguished. Dispatch notes show “extensive overhaul” on the fire, which is the work that comes after the main fire is out to ensure it doesn’t reignite, she said. 

“Crews were there throughout the whole day mopping up and making sure there was no smoldering,” Stewart said. 

Firefighters blast water from fire hoses to stir up dirt and soil, unearth any smoldering material and “extinguish any embers buried under the surface that you’re not seeing,” she said.  

“We use hand tools to dig up the dirt, we use water, we use foam, we use heavy equipment to bulldoze around it,” Stewart said. 

Stewart said the last firefighter left the scene at 4:14 p.m. – nearly 16 hours after the fire was first reported and about 12 hours after crews had it contained. The department reported the fire contained at 4:46 a.m., according to a news release the city department posted to social media.

An LAFD spokesperson said investigators have not determined what caused the New Year’s Day fire.

The Palisades Fire ignited six days later in an area strikingly similar to where the New Year’s Day blaze burned. 

Don Griffin, 78, took the revealing photos of both fire origins from his backyard on Piedra Morada Drive. The images show flames burning in nearly the same stretch of ridgeline.

After snapping the New Year’s photo, Griffin said he watched firefighters mop up.

“They really worked for hours to make sure it was clearly out,” he said.

On  Jan. 7, a neighbor banged on Griffin’s door to alert him of the new blaze, and he snapped another photo from his backyard at 10:31 a.m., one minute after fire officials said the Palisades Fire roared to life. 

He spent the rest of Tuesday fighting off flames climbing up the steep inclines behind his house, captured in a series of videos.

But the Palisades Fire grew into a historic monster that burned across nearly 24,000 acres, killed at least five people and destroyed an estimated 5,300 structures. The fire continues to grow and threaten other communities.  

And Griffin began considering the closeness of the fires’ origin sites. 

The two wildfire investigation experts told the Chronicle Griffin’s images raise red flags.

“Looking at the two photos, I would agree with you that there appears to be an overlap of the two fires, but it is hard to say for sure as I cannot see on the other side of the ridge,” said Alan Carlson, a retired Cal Fire deputy chief who worked more than 50 years as a wildland fire investigator. “Wind direction looks to be consistent with a possible rekindle of the first fire.

“An 8-acre fire in that fuel type is also consistent with potential re-kindle,” continued Carlson, who headed Cal Fire’s Northern Region law enforcement division. “Gusty winds are consistent with hot materials blowing across control lines.”

Carlson also agreed with Taylor that smoldering embers, under the right conditions, could have rekindled even after six days. 

Further, the morning report of fire on Jan. 7 is also consistent with a rekindle, he added.“During the night it is less likely to have been observed, could have smoldered for an extended period of time before going to flame as the winds picked up,” Carlson said.

Taylor called a rekindling “very possible,” and as a former investigator “I’d want to get into it big time.”

Taylor said handheld heat detectors are required to sense if there’s still smoldering fire beneath the soil. Without that, you could walk over a burning area and not even realize fire was brewing beneath you.

Stewart said that Los Angeles city firefighters use those types of sensors inside structures but not outdoors. 

Decades ago, Cal Fire and Caltrans teamed up to conduct an experiment on burning piles of tree limbs near Chico during winter. The piles burned for days, then were covered by almost four feet of snow. The tree limbs smoldered and produced heat readings under the snow all the way until spring, Taylor said.

That finding suggests smoldering could persist undetected for six days on a parched hillside.

“You could soak it with water and do all you want,” Taylor said. “When it’s that dry the soil tends to get a crust and fire extends downward into the soil. And water doesn’t readily penetrate it.”

Even hand crews turning over soil might not penetrate deep enough to reach the smoldering roots. The fact LAFD stayed at the scene for 16 hours is great, Taylor said, but “the challenge is you can have a small smoldering in dry fuel and miss it,” especially on steep, hard to access terrain.

The ATF on Saturday announced it would “take the lead in determining the origin and cause of the Pacific Palisades fire.” The bureau’s fire investigators have expertise in complex arson cases and special training in destructive devices and explosives including fireworks.

Colbrun said the ATF is not investigating the New Year’s Day fire. ATF fire investigators have surveyed the fire origin area and are working with local agencies. More federal investigators are flying in to begin processing the scene Monday. 

“We are the lead in determining the cause and origin solely of the Pacific Palisades Fire,” she said. 

The same gusting Santa Ana winds that hit the Los Angeles region last week and fueled the Palisades Fire are forecast to return Tuesday, increasing the risk of both fire spread and rekindling.

Reach Matthias Gafni: Matthias.Gafni@sfchronicle.com; Bluesky: @mgafni.bsky.social,Reach Julie Johnson: julie.johnson@sfchronicle.com; X: @juliejohnson; Bluesky: @jjreport.bsky.social