About this story
Editing by Sam Granados and Reem Akkad.
This story shows 472 people, the estimated median size of the US social network based on research by Tyler McCormick, Matthew Salganik and Tian Zheng. Their work uses a statistical model that estimates the number of people a person knows by name, based on the number of people they know by a specific set of names.
The effects of the war are not evenly distributed, but on average this is what would happen to 472 people in Gaza. Each person in this story represents approximately 4,700 Gazans.
The death toll in Gaza and Israel includes civilians and combatants. As of April 5, the Gaza Ministry of Health reports that at least 33,091 people have been killed in Gaza. According to the Israeli government, approximately 1,200 Israelis were killed in the October 7 attacks.
The population of Gaza in 2023 was 2,226,544, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. The population of Israel in 2023 was 9,727,000, according to the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics.
The number of people facing each impact of the war is based on the share of Gazans who died, faced hunger or displacement, fled to Rafah or left Gaza. For example, at least 1.4 percent of Gaza’s population has been killed in the war as of April 5. Seven people represent 1.4 percent of a group of 472 people, so we estimate that seven people in the typical American social network would have died if they lived in Gaza.
Hunger estimates are based on reports from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. As of March 15, no one in Gaza was food secure; 96,000 people are in phase 2 of food insecurity (“stressed”); 578,000 people are in phase 3 (“crisis”); 876,000 people are in phase 4 (“emergency”); and 677,000 people are in phase 5 (“disaster”/“famine”). The IPC food insecurity scales are defined in detail here.
Estimates of goods entering Gaza are based on reports from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. As of April 4, 19,034 trucks of goods had entered Gaza since October 7, compared to 64,286 trucks expected based on pre-war averages.
Estimates of displacement and numbers in Rafah come from the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. As of April 3, UNRWA reports that at least 1.7 million people are internally displaced in Gaza. As of April 3, 1.2 million people were in Rafah; about 257,000 people lived there before the war, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics.
The number of Gazans whose homes are uninhabitable comes from a February 2024 World Bank report, which estimates that 1.2 million people in Gaza face homelessness due to damaged and destroyed residential buildings .
The share of Gazans who have left the Gaza Strip is based on a Washington Post analysis of daily Telegram postings on travel to and from Gaza by the Rafah Crossing Authority. The number of people who have been referred abroad for medical treatment and who are on the waiting list for medical referral comes from OCHA. As of April 4, 9,389 patients in Gaza had requested medical evaluation. Of these, 3,529 have traveled abroad for treatment and 887 have been approved but remain in Gaza.
washingtonpost
