USMNT vs. Uruguay: A decisive match in the Copa America, full of mystery and “many variables”

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — U.S. men’s national team coach Gregg Berhalter is a planner. In the months between USMNT games, when his job is less pressurized and less hands-on, his methodical brain obsesses over details and possibilities. He spent long summer days before the 2022 World Cup analyzing his opponents in the group stage. He likely spent much of this spring developing game plans for the 2024 Copa América.

But he couldn’t have prepared for this, for a decisive Group C match with confusing storylines, a suspended star and an injured goalkeeper, plus an opponent whose influential coach will be absent and whose motivations are unclear .

The U.S. national soccer team will face Uruguay on Monday at Arrowhead Stadium in a match full of mystery. And she probably (maybe, but not definitely) must win to reach the knockout stages of the Copa América and avoid a bitter failure.

USMNT Copa America scenarios in Group C

In a simultaneous group stage final, Panama will face Bolivia in Orlando. The simplified version of several dizzying scenarios is that the United States must match Panama’s result.

After Thursday’s self-defeating 2-1 loss to The Canalerosthe United States and Panama are tied on three points heading into the third and final day of Group C.

Uruguay have six points, with a goal differential of +7, and will top the group unless they lose to the United States by four goals.

In second position — the most significant place — the United States (+1) is ahead of Panama (-1) in goal differential; so the United States will advance if both teams draw or win by the same margin.

If Panama starts scoring goals, the permutations become more complicated. The second tiebreaker is goals scored throughout the group stage – and there, with each team on three goals, Panama has an advantage. A Panama win 3-0 and a USA win 1-0 would send Panama into the quarterfinals and the USA eliminated.

A simpler way to look at these permutations is to look at it from Panama’s perspective: they have to improve on the US result; and if both win, their margin of victory must be at least twice the US margin.

Uruguay is going all out

So the superficial view is that the United States is doing pretty well. The problem is everything else.

Panama could very well beat Bolivia, who scored five goals against Uruguay and are clearly the worst team in Group C.

Uruguay, on the other hand, is in fine form. Marcelo Bielsa, a revered Argentine coach, has revived The Celeste and transformed them into the most impressive team at the 2024 Copa América. They are talented, coordinated and aggressive. They press man-to-man, relentlessly, high up the pitch and blitz their opponents immediately after winning the ball.

“We know they’re going to be extremely high intensity and really forward-thinking,” said American defender Antonee Robinson, who played against Bielsa’s Leeds United in the English Premier League, on Saturday.

“The way they maintain the intensity throughout the match is on a different level,” Berhalter added on Sunday.

“They play a high-risk, high-reward game,” Robinson noted, sometimes leaving spaces that vertical attackers can exploit.

But the USMNT’s most vertical striker, Tim Weah, will not be available.

Berhalter’s options after Weah’s suspension

Weah was suspended for two matches due to his costly red card against Panama; and the USMNT has had to struggle to adapt in his absence.

They only had three days to concoct a plan B and figure out how to replace a player whose skills had no equivalent in the current player pool.

Weah, when healthy, has started every game for the U.S. A team over the past two years; he is an indispensable part of the right wing, as his directness on and off the ball adds dimensions to the American attack, dimensions that it otherwise lacks.

So how will Berhalter reconfigure the USMNT without Weah?

Option #1: The closest replacement would likely be Haji Wright, a striker who has often played as a midfielder in the past, but now plays on the wing for the United States and for his English club, Coventry City.

Wright is more comfortable and effective on the left wing; Christian Pulisic could move to the right, where he spent most of last season for AC Milan in Italy. Such a change would, however, require further adjustments later in the field.

Option #2 would be to play Gio Reyna wide and bring Yunus Musah into Reyna’s midfield.

If Reyna is considered essential in midfield, option No. 3 would be another versatile striker, like Brenden Aaronson or Malik Tillman, on the wing.

But both options have a familiar flaw: when the United States plays with two wingers who both prefer to drift inside the pitch, into pockets of space between the lines – as Reyna, Aaronson and Tillman all do, and as Pulisic often does when playing on the left – the American attack often struggles. Without Weah in September 2022, for example, they failed to score a goal in 180 minutes against Japan and Saudi Arabia.

Last but not least, option #4 would be something completely unpredictable: perhaps a 3-5-2 with Pulisic paired with Folarin Balogun up front? Or a 4-4-2 with a diamond midfield of Adams, Weston McKennie, Musah and Reyna?

In the past, Berhalter has favored consistency. He deployed roughly the same lineup throughout the 2022 World Cup and the exact same lineup in the U.S. national soccer team’s first two games at the 2024 Copa América. But he has sometimes been willing and able to tweak his system to counter a specific opponent.

Uruguayan mind games?

Heading into Monday’s game, there were questions about whether Berhalter knew exactly what he was going to be up against.

Uruguay did not mathematically qualify for the quarter-finals, but with their place all but confirmed, fans and media alike speculated that Bielsa could play a second-choice team, resting the regulars for the knockout stages.

Assistant coach Diego Reyes was asked several times about the possibility on Sunday. He said, after discussing “many variables,” that Monday’s starting lineup had not yet been determined.

Next to Reyes was backup goalkeeper Franco Israel, an unusual choice for a prematch news conference that raised suspicions of lineup rotation. But it was almost too unusual – and perhaps a clumsy move. Rumors in Uruguayan football circles suggest that the composition of the Uruguayan team will remain virtually unchanged.

“I assume they’re going to play their strongest team,” Berhalter said Sunday.

And they won’t assume their place in the quarter-finals is assured. “We are focused on tomorrow’s game as if it were our last,” Reyes said.

Bielsa also suspended for Monday’s match

They will, however, be without coach Bielsa, who received a one-match ban on Sunday after Uruguay’s players arrived late for the second half of Thursday’s win over Bolivia.

Bielsa can still prepare his team, of course, but he won’t be in his dressing room or on his bench on Monday. He won’t be allowed to have contact with them once they arrive at Arrowhead. Two of his longtime assistants, Reyes and Pablo Quiroga, will take over.

The suspension will limit their ability to exploit Bielsa’s wisdom mid-match. But that won’t limit Uruguay’s ability to play BielsaBall. His genius lies in his teaching and training, not his in-game adjustments. “This is a well-coached team,” Berhalter said Sunday. “No matter who is on the sideline, it will be a very similar style of play.”

And the assistants are in tune with his philosophies. Reyes, since 2007, has followed him from Chile to Athletic Bilbao, from Marseille to Lazio (briefly!), from Lille to Leeds and now to Uruguay. He seemed confident that he and the staff would be able to cope with the mission without any problems.

“We have been working with Marcelo for a very long time,” Reyes said.

A crucial match for the United States and Berhalter

Uruguay, more importantly, is fully healthy, with all 26 players available.

The United States will be without Weah, and may be without goalkeeper Matt Turner, who injured his left leg in the first half against Panama and left that game at halftime.

Turner had “limited” workouts Saturday and Sunday, Berhalter said. It is questionable for Monday. Ethan Horvath would start if Turner can’t go.

None of this is ideal for a game with enormous consequences, arguably the most important for the U.S. national team since Qatar. A win would be a proof of concept and give the U.S. players courage for the round of 16 and beyond. A loss could trigger a crisis and cost Berhalter his job.