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USD/JPY poll – forecast as high as 140. Direct Bank of Japan intervention seems unlikely,


Reuters conducted a poll this week (July 1-6), 61 analysts responded.

Main Points:

  • the median forecast was 131 six months from now, down from 126.84 in last month’s forecast
  • Seven of 61 respondents expected the yen to be weaker than six months from now, with four forecasting it at 140.

Japan was unlikely to intervene in the forex market to prevent it from slipping, said 45% of 22 survey respondents.

  • “The BOJ will likely be forced to abandon the yield curve control policy in the coming months if the JPY depreciates further. However, direct intervention seems unlikely,” said Roberto Cobo Garcia, chief strategy officer. FX at BBVA.

Ten of 22 poll respondents said Japan would not intervene.

  • six respondents predicted an intervention at 140
  • four chose 145 as the likely trigger level
  • One selected 150
  • another said 155 or less

USD/JPY update:

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