US S&P Global Manufacturing Index final June 52.7 vs. preliminary 52.4
S&P Global US PMI Results
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Friday 01/07/2022 | 13:42 GMT-0
01/07/2022 | 13:42 GMT-0
Preliminary 52.4
Before 57.0
First drop in new orders in more than two years
Inflation
Inflation
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate at which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general price level where a given currency is effectively buying less than it has in previous periods. In terms of evaluating strength or currencies, and by extension foreign currencies, inflation or its measures are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the global creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply relative to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). This thus generates pressure from demand on a supply that is not increasing at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation. How Does Inflation Affect Forex? The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels. This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare the different purchasing power of each country based on the general level of prices. By doing so, it helps to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living. The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates in the forex market. Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on the exchange. Conversely, too low inflation (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the foreign exchange market.
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate at which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general price level where a given currency is effectively buying less than it has in previous periods. In terms of evaluating strength or currencies, and by extension foreign currencies, inflation or its measures are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the global creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply relative to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). This thus generates pressure from demand on a supply that is not increasing at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation. How Does Inflation Affect Forex? The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels. This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare the different purchasing power of each country based on the general level of prices. By doing so, it helps to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living. The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates in the forex market. Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on the exchange. Conversely, too low inflation (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the foreign exchange market.
Read this term pressures remained historically high, but increases in input costs and production costs eased to three-month lows
Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:
“The PMI survey fell in June to a level indicative of the manufacturing sector acts as a drag on GDP, with this drag set to intensify as we move through summer. Forward-looking indicators such as business expectations, new order intake, labor backlogs and input purchases all deteriorated markedly, suggesting heightened risk of an industrial slowdown.
“Household demand growth is slowing amid the cost of living crisis, and business capital spending is also showing signs of slowing due to tighter financial conditions and a dimmer outlook. However, most notable was a sharp decline in input orders by manufacturers, suggesting an inventory correction.
“The good news is that lower demand for inputs has put some pressure on supply chains and calmed prices for a wide variety of goods, which should help ease broader inflationary pressures in countries. coming months.”
I want to put this into perspective. Demand for manufactured goods during the pandemic was extraordinary as it would drop, companies were overordering as they rushed to get inventory.
So now it’s recovery time. This will mean less demand for factories and negative numbers for the coming months. Should this be a surprise? No. Will this lead to a “recession” in the manufacturing sector? Absolute. But this “recession” is just the process of normalization and should not lead to mass factory layoffs or widespread pain, although I expect the usual commentators to act that way.
The ISM manufacturing survey is next and is expected to come in at 54.9 vs. 56.1 previously.
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