US-Israeli Defeat of Iran’s Missiles Is a Big Boost for Its Regional Alliance

• The US-led operation was a decisive factor in helping Israel repel Iran’s unprecedented attack.
• This is a boost for the regional air defense network desired by the United States.
• This could force Russia to provide more air defenses to Iran, which has supplied its war in Ukraine.

The Biden administration’s goal of establishing a regional air defense network in the Middle East received a massive boost Saturday evening with the success of efforts by the United States, Israel, Britain, France and Jordan who intercepted almost all Iranian drones and missiles targeting Israel.

“The most likely impact (of the operation) is that the Biden administration’s Middle East Air Defense (MEAD) concept will convince skeptical Gulf partners – namely Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – that an American concept of mutual defense in the region could be beneficial to them. just like it did for Israel,” Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, told Business Insider.

The U.S.-led operation was a decisive factor in helping Israel repel the unprecedented April 13 attacks in Iran. drone and missile attack.

The massive strike program launched by Iran on Saturday included around 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles, the overwhelming majority of which were successfully intercepted; It is also reported that many missiles have failed in mid-flight due to technical problems.

United States beaten down more Iranian drones than Israel and played a central role in the “multinational air defense operation” made up of British, French and Jordanian air forces. Additionally, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reportedly provided information on Iran’s attack plans.

The Biden administration has been pushing for the MEAD concept since its inception in office. In a first combat test of the MEAD, Israeli warplanes shot down two Iranian drones outside its territory in the Middle East. March 15, 2021in cooperation with anonymous Arab partners.

The United States oversaw a similar coordinated effort in the Iranian barrage that began on April 13 on a large scale, bringing together various states and their relevant surveillance and weapons systems.

“Individual weapon systems, while important, are less decisive for regional decision-making than the assurance that the United States will be there to coordinate the use of weapon systems,” Heras said.

“If the Americans do not manage the regional defense architecture, weapons systems and reconnaissance equipment are far from providing a shield for Middle Eastern partners, including Israel.”

While an estimated 99% of Iran’s munitions were shot down and others could not be launched or suffered technical failures, Tehran does not consider the operation a failure, far from it.

“Iran considers the operation a success beyond its expectations,” Farzin Nadimi, a defense and security analyst and senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told BI .

“More than anything, the main goal of this strike was to create a new paradigm that Iran can and will strike directly on Israeli soil if necessary,” Nadimi said. “They also wanted to establish technological parity with Israel and diminish its QME (qualitative military advantage), and restore their credibility and deterrence against Israel.”

The analyst believes time will tell whether Iran has successfully reestablished its deterrent threat, noting that another important goal of Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps paramilitary body was to test its systems against Israeli defenses and allies.

“If we view the strike as simply a message to Israel and a test of the IRGC’s offensive capabilities, the statistics (i.e. the number of drones and missiles intercepted and shot down, or the extent of damage caused by those who made impacts or lack thereof) ) becomes less significant, or even non-existent,” Nadimi said.

It remains to be seen to what extent the decisive and unified response to its attack will influence Iranian strategy. Iran has deepened its military ties with Russia since 2022. Tehran hopes to receive Russian fighter jets and other advanced systems that could improve its air defenses and make any Israeli strike on Iran more difficult and dangerous.

“Russia will seek to offset the success of the United States in its support of Israel by seeking to bolster Iranian defense with advanced Russian systems such as the Su-35,” Heras said.

According to intelligence officials, Moscow is “move forward” agreements to supply Tehran with Su-35 Flanker aircraft, an air superiority fighter which is one of the most advanced in the Russian arsenal. Iran confirmed that it had finalized an agreement for Su-35 and Mi-28 attack helicopters in November. Reports also emerged last year indicating that Iran is also seeking Russia’s advanced S-400 air defense missile system.

“More rapid delivery of Russian weapons such as the Su-35 or S-400 can certainly be a Russian response to any significant US involvement in what follows,” Nadimi said.

“We must, however, take into account that it will take months, if not years, to train and evaluate Iranian combat-ready crews for these complex systems.”