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US core PCE index YoY for June: 2.6% vs. 2.5% estimate
![US core PCE index YoY for June: 2.6% vs. 2.5% estimate US core PCE index YoY for June: 2.6% vs. 2.5% estimate](https://i1.wp.com/images.forexlive.com/images/Core%20PC_id_07ba88ff-e7f5-4bc6-84b6-85d224004434_size975.jpg?w=975&resize=975,457&ssl=1)
- Basic PCE of the previous month: 2.6%
- Core PCE month-over-month increased 0.2% compared to the estimate of 0.1%. The unrounded figure is lower than the 0.2% increase, or 0.188%.
- Baseline PCE urine analysis of 2.6% versus estimate of 2.5%. Last month, 2.6%
- PCE MoM 0.1% vs. 0.1% estimate. Unrounded figure was less than 0.1%, or 0.0788%
- PCE YoY 2.5% vs. 2.5% estimated and 2.6% previously
- Personal income +0.2% against 0.4% estimated. The previous month, the forecast had been revised downwards, from 0.5% to 0.4%. Wages and salaries increased by 0.3%.
- Personal spending 0.2% versus 0.4% last month (revised from 0.3%).
- The savings rate stood at 3.4% compared to 3.5% last month
For the full BEA report, click here
Other views:
- Three-month annualized inflation rate of 2.3% versus 2.9% previously.
- 6-month annualized rate for core PCE of 3.4% versus 3.3% previously.
Core PCE was slightly better than expected, consistent with core PCE data released in yesterday’s GDP report.
Basic PCE, personal income and personal consumption
Looking at the markets, yields remain lower:
- 2-year yield 4.412%, -3.1 basis points
- 5-year yield 4.106%, -2.7 basis points
- 10-year yield 4.221%, -2.5 basis points
- 30-year yield 4.465%, principal 0.5 basis points
Let’s look at stock futures:
- Dow Industrial Index Average +254 points
- S&P 43.03 points
- NASDAQ index up 200.92 points
The Fed is targeting a 67 basis point rate cut by year-end, with a September cut priced in. That’s little change from pre-publication levels.
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