Washington has expressed concerns to kyiv over two attempted attacks last week against radar stations that provide conventional air defense as well as warning of nuclear launches by the West. At least one strike in Armavir, in the Krasnodar region of southeastern Russia, appears to have caused damage.
“These sites were not involved in supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine,” the US official said. “But these are sensitive locations because Russia could feel that its strategic deterrent capabilities are being targeted, which could harm its ability to maintain its nuclear deterrent against the United States.”
A Ukrainian official familiar with the matter, however, said Russia had used the radar sites to monitor the activities of the Ukrainian military, particularly kyiv’s use of aerial weapons, such as drones and missiles. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter, confirmed that Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate, known by its initials as GUR, was responsible for the strikes.
Ukraine faces an ongoing threat to its existence from a Russian enemy force. — which has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal – which has recently gained ground, in part due to its sophisticated radar and weapons jamming technology, which has rendered some state-supplied guided missiles and artillery shells virtually useless -United. This capability also improved Moscow’s ability to track long-range weapons and drones supplied by the British and the United States, which caused serious damage to the Russian Black Sea Fleet and military installations in Crimea, the southern peninsula illegally seized from Ukraine in 2014.
The Ukrainian official said the aim of the strikes was to diminish Russia’s ability to track the activities of the Ukrainian military in southern Ukraine. The drone that targeted the radar station near Orsk in Russia’s Orenburg region along Kazakhstan’s northern border traveled more than 1,800 kilometers, making it one of several attempted attacks deepest on Russian territory. The Ukrainian official declined to say whether the May 26 strike caused any damage.
U.S. officials have said they are sympathetic to Ukraine’s plight — administration officials are actively considering whether to lift restrictions on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons to strike inside the Russia. But if Russia’s early warning capabilities were blinded by the Ukrainian attacks, even in part, it could harm strategic stability between Washington and Moscow, the U.S. official said.
“Russia might think it has a reduced ability to detect early nuclear activity against it, which could then become a problem,” the official said. “It should be obvious to everyone that there is no intention (on the part of the United States) to use nuclear weapons against Russia. But there are certainly concerns about how Russia might perceive that its deterrent capabilities are being targeted and its early warning systems are being attacked.”
The perception problem is likely fueled by “a mistaken belief that targeting Ukraine is led by Washington,” said Dmitri Alperovitch, a security analyst and president of the Silverado think tank. “But it means that kyiv’s attacks on Russia’s nuclear deterrent infrastructure could potentially trigger a perilous escalation with the West. Ultimately, nuclear command and control sites and early warning sites should be prohibited.
Some analysts were perplexed about the targets: While Krasnodar is close enough to Ukraine to track missiles and drones, the radar station near Orsk is focused on the Middle East and China, they said.
When asked why they would target such a remote site, the Ukrainian official claimed that Russia “has directed all its capabilities towards the war against Ukraine.”
After Ukraine’s disappointing counteroffensive last year, Russia has regained the initiative on the battlefield in recent months, advancing in the eastern Donetsk region and recently launching a new attack in the northern region -east of Kharkiv, along the border. kyiv, meanwhile, is increasingly targeting sites deep within Russia – a capability that many doubted would be possible without Western support and approval.
About three weeks ago, shortly after the Russian assault on Kharkiv began, Ukraine asked the United States to ease long-standing restrictions on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons to attack targets in Russia. Some senior officials favor such a move, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who urged President Biden to agree to lift restrictions. The White House is considering such a proposal, but no action has yet been taken, according to officials.
At a news conference Wednesday in Moldova, Blinken said the United States had “neither encouraged nor permitted strikes outside of Ukraine, but that Ukraine, as I have said before, must make their own decisions about how best to defend themselves effectively.”
Blinken added that the United States has “adapted and adjusted” to changing conditions on the battlefield and that, as Russia pursues new tactics of “aggression” and “escalation,” it is “convinced that we will continue to do so.”
There are no restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S.-supplied air defenses to shoot down Russian missiles or fighter jets over Russian territory “if they pose a threat to Russia.” Ukraine,” the US official said.
But U.S. officials have previously raised concerns with Ukrainian officials about kyiv’s attacks on Russian soil, sometimes even coming during the planning phase. Before the first anniversary of the war, the The GUR was planning attacks against Moscow, according to a classified report leaked by the US National Security Agency, which was later confirmed by two senior Ukrainian military officials.
Days before the attack, U.S. officials had asked kyiv to cancel their plans, fearing it would provoke an aggressive response from the Kremlin; the Ukrainians complied, according to leaked U.S. documents and senior Ukrainian officials.
In a more recent example, Washington opposed Ukrainian drones targeting oil refineries in Russia – a request that came directly from Vice President Harris to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference in February. according to officials close to the matter. U.S. officials believed the strikes would raise global energy prices and lead to more aggressive Russian retaliation in Ukraine.
With growing concern over Russia’s advance on the battlefield, Washington faces pressure from NATO and several key European allies to allow Ukraine to use its full force and its scope. weapons supplied by the United States.
“If you can’t attack Russian forces across the front line because they are across the border, then of course you significantly reduce the ability of Ukrainian forces to defend themselves “, said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. the alliance’s top political official said on Monday during a visit to Bulgaria.
Khurshudyan reported from Kyiv. Siobhán O’Grady in Kyiv and Alex Horton in Washington contributed to this report.
washingtonpost
