Unitedhealth Group Inc(NYSE: Unh) recent nosedive was not only a graphic model – it was a circuit breaker of conviction.
Tom HulickCEO of Strategy Asset Managers, did not wait for a rebound. He threw the stock, citing “a deterioration of fundamentals” in exclusive information shared with Benizinga by e-mail.
Unitedhealth’s shares are down more than 42% for the start of the year, more than 31% in the last month.
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The exit of the active manager of Unitedhealth Stock followed a series of punches for Unitedhealth: an unexpected resignation of the CEO, the withdrawal of the directives of the 2025 financial year, and what Hulick described as “rare revision of results and the downward revisions of EPs”. But the real red flag?
A company that was still looking forward to suddenly ceased to do so. “When a perennial component ceases to provide advice before and a leading turnover coincides with the shift in performance, it is a signal to be careful.”
And Hulick’s attention is now on a brewing storm in Medicare Advantage. Once the engine is taking advantage of Unitedhealth now shows signs of professional exhaustion. “The increase in use, stricter reimbursement and structural adjustments related to the transition from the CMS risk model” have created a perfect storm, said Hulick, adding that “compression of margins on a scale that cannot be resolved with typical cost controls” could cause slower growth or even warming.
The wider image is not much more pink for the managed care sector. With the regulators that turn and the climbing of medical loss ratios, Hulick says that the main business model loses its brightness. “The advantage seems to be capped in relation to previous cycles,” he said, noting a change in the balance of defensive growth which “is not necessarily in favor of operators”.
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So where does the manager of $ 700 million put his chips? Hulick goes on science for a long time. “We are investing in innovation -oriented segments that offer an idiosyncratic increase and are not attached to the dynamics of reimbursement.”
This includes biotechnology at an early stage, gene edition and longevity games – as well as global insurance companies Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE: AJG), which, according to Hulick, has “demonstrated sustainable growth, pricing power and operating in areas less exposed to volatility that we see in American health insurance”.