Unable to back down, Israel and Hezbollah move closer to all-out war

A full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would be “a catastrophe”, the UN secretary-general has said. But for David Kamari, who lives under almost daily fire on the Israeli side of the border, it would be a solution.

Last month, a Hezbollah rocket fired from Lebanon landed in his backyard in the border town of Kiryat Shmona, cracking his house in several places and filling it with rubble.

He points out the gaping holes where shrapnel passed through the walls, missing him by inches. And then to the hills above us, where Hezbollah-controlled territory begins.

“Every day, every night: bombs. (It’s a) problem,” he said. “And I was born here. If you live here for one night, you go crazy.”

David still lives in his house filled with rubble, shrapnel tangled with the remains of his television. Outside is the blackened relic of his car, burned by the fire that ravaged his yard after the rocket hit.

Most of the population of Kiryat Shmona was evacuated after the Hamas attacks on October 7, as Hezbollah rockets began raining down in support of their Palestinian ally.

David is one of the few who stayed. “I’ve lived here 71 years,” he said. “I won’t go. I was in the army, I’m not afraid.”

His solution? “Wage war on Hezbollah; kill Hezbollah,” he said.

Israel hit back hard against Hezbollah, killing senior commanders and striking targets further inside Lebanon.

Hezbollah has sent larger volleys of drones and missiles across the border this month, and threats from both sides have increased. Earlier this week, the group released drone footage showing military installations and civilian infrastructure in the Israeli city of Haifa.

Tough talk has long been part of a mutual deterrence strategy, with both sides seen as wary of all-out war.

But as the conflict continues and more than 60,000 Israelis remain evacuated from their homes in the north, there are signs that Israeli leaders and citizens are prepared to support military options aimed at pushing Hezbollah back from the border by force. .

Kiryat Shmona Mayor Avichai Stern shows me where a rocket hit a street near his office last week.

“I don’t think any country in the world would accept shootings against its citizens every day,” Mayor Stern said.

“And sitting here like lambs to the slaughter, waiting for the day when they attack us like we saw in the south, is not acceptable. Everyone understands that the choice is between war now or war later.”

The dangerous standoff here depends largely on the war Israel is waging more than 100 miles to the south, in the Gaza Strip.

A ceasefire there would also help ease tensions in the north, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintains both conflicts, jeopardized by his promise to far-right allied governments to destroy Hamas before ending to the Gaza war.

Earlier this week, even the Israeli military spokesperson said that goal may not be realistic.

“The idea that we can destroy Hamas or make Hamas disappear is misleading to the public,” Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari told Israeli television.

On the Lebanese side of the border, where more than 90,000 people have been evacuated, the mood among those who remained is equally grim.

Fatima Belhas lives a few kilometers from the Israeli border, near Jbal el Botm.

At first, she trembled in fear when Israel bombed the region, she said, but she has since accepted the bombings and no longer thinks about leaving.

“Where would I go?” she asked. “(Others) have family elsewhere. But how can I impose on someone like that? We have no money.”

“Perhaps it is better to die at home with dignity,” she said. “We grew up resisting. We will not be driven from our land like the Palestinians.”

Hussein Aballan recently left his village of Mays al Jbal, about 10 km from Kiryat Shmona on the Lebanese side of the border.

Life there had become impossible, he said, with spotty communications and electricity and almost no functioning stores.

The few dozen families remaining are mainly elderly people who refuse to leave their homes and farms, he told the BBC.

But he supported Hezbollah’s assault on Israel.

“Everyone in southern (Lebanon) experienced years of aggression, but came out stronger,” he said. “It is only through resistance that we are strong.”

As difficult as this border conflict is for the people on both sides, a full-scale war would elevate the crisis to another scale.

Some Beirut residents keep their bags packed and passports ready in case of widespread conflict, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said this week that nowhere in Israel would be spared.

Hezbollah is a well-armed and well-trained army, supported by Iran; Israel, a sophisticated military power with the United States as an ally.

A full-scale war risks being devastating for both sides.