Ukraine’s long-range missiles leave Russians with ‘nowhere to hide’

Ukraine faces Russian offensives that could intensify over the summer, but those weapons could help cripple Moscow’s efforts.

“If you’re worried about Russian forces overrunning your defenses, you want to go after the headquarters and logistics that would enable Russian attacks,” said Ben Hodges, a retired lieutenant general and former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe. .

The United States admitted last month that it secretly shipped a number of MGM-140 military tactical missile systems, also known as ATACMS, to Ukraine in early spring as part of a program $300 million arms plan announced in March. The number of missiles is not publicly known, but ATACMS missiles cost on average about $1.3 million each.

Jake Sullivan, the Biden administration’s national security adviser, said in late April that the United States would send more ATACMS to Ukraine after passing a $61 billion aid package that was blocked for months by Republicans in Congress. The legislation required Washington to transfer the munitions.

ATACMS are tactical ballistic missiles that come in several variants. Ukraine has already received ones that have a range of 100 miles and can disperse nearly 1,000 submunitions over a wide area, making them particularly damaging to airfields. Last fall, kyiv used the missiles for this very purpose.

The United States also has ATACMS that can travel up to 190 miles; one variant has a unitary warhead, while the other can disperse some 300 submunitions. Ukraine has long lobbied Washington for these extended-range missiles, although it is unclear what kyiv actually got.

Around the same time, in late April, the United Kingdom announced that it would send Ukraine additional Storm Shadow cruise missiles as part of the country’s largest ever weapons program (500 million pounds sterling, or $633 million), which included more than 1,600 strike and air defense missiles. ammunition.

A few days later, British Defense Minister Grant Shapps revealed for the first time that Italy had, at one point, also supplied Kiev with Storm Shadow cruise missiles (France sent Kiev its own version of the ammunition called SCALP-EG).

These air-delivered missiles can fly at low altitudes to avoid detection and have been used to strike Russian naval headquarters and vehicle repair depots on the occupied Crimean peninsula. Their range of 155 miles places them between the ATACMS variants.

It is unclear how many ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles have already arrived in Ukraine this spring, nor how many more the country can expect to receive in the coming weeks as it attempts to curb the momentum of the Russia on the ground. kyiv had previously obtained a limited number of both munitions from the United States and its European allies.

A larger missile arsenal could deprive Russia of its ability to deploy crucial assets within 100 miles of the front lines, said Dan Rice, a former U.S. Army artillery officer who previously served as special adviser with Ukrainian military leaders. “This puts enormous pressure on all their key high-value targets.”

“You have a 600-mile front and then a hundred miles depth – where do you hide it all?” said Rice, a longtime advocate of sending cluster munitions to Ukraine and now president of the American University of kyiv. “Your transportation hubs, your rail stations, your supply depots, your command and control – and most importantly, your anti-aircraft systems.”

The scope of the Ukrainian battlefield continued to grow throughout the large-scale war. What started with short-range artillery improved over time with the arrival of the U.S.-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS. These revolutionary weapons suddenly brought Russian logistics centers, munitions depots, and command and control nodes within firing range.

Russia has adapted to HIMARS by moving its critical assets out of reach and jamming munitions. The arrival of Storm Shadow missiles – and, a few months later, ATAMCS – presented new challenges for Moscow, but Ukraine received so few of them that it had to choose what to target.

Hodges and Rice argue that a larger arsenal of ATACMS and Storm Shadows can give Ukraine both the reach and inventory to destroy THE high-value targets that support Moscow’s war efforts, such as supply depots and maintenance facilities. Indeed, kyiv has used American missiles in recent weeks to strike Russian airfields and troop gatherings.

“When you start taking them off the board, it doesn’t matter how much untrained mass infantry — the cannon fodder — the Russians have,” Hodges said. “I think long-range precision strikes are becoming the dominant factor on the battlefield.”

Missiles like ATACMS and Storm Shadow “will allow Ukraine to neutralize Russia’s advantages and ultimately allow it to regain the initiative,” he added. Ukraine has also long sought the German Taurus missile, which has a range more than 100 miles longer than the ATACMS, but Berlin has so far refused to supply them.

The increase in the arsenal comes at a critical time. Russia is making progress on the battlefield as its largest war industry shifts to mass production of drones and glide bombs that pound Ukraine’s defenses.

But ultimately, the effectiveness of kyiv’s long-range strike regime depends on how many munitions it receives – and how it uses them. Ukraine has long been restricted to using ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles only inside occupied territories, although the UK recently agreed to let kyiv use its weapons to strike inside Russia .

Whether or not the United States will follow suit remains to be seen. Analysts and officials said U.S. restrictions continued to prevent Ukraine from mounting an effective defense and essentially allowed Russia to carry out a new attack in the northeastern Kharkiv region.

The advances appear to be the start of Moscow’s expected summer offensive as Ukrainian forces become increasingly stretched across the front, Jack Watling, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, warned in an analysis this week. week.

“The outlook in Ukraine is bleak,” Watling said. “However, if Ukraine’s allies now commit to replenishing Ukraine’s munitions stockpiles, helping to establish a robust training pipeline, and making the industrial investments needed to support this effort, then Ukraine’s summer offensive Russia can be blunted and Ukraine will get the breathing space it needs to regain the initiative.”