Ukraine is struggling to maintain sufficient forces in its fight against Russia, which could lead to more problems in the future, war analyst Michael Kofman said.
The besieged city of Kharkiv, in northeastern Ukraine, “is pretty well entrenched and defended, I think, at this point, but nevertheless, there is danger there because it will take a few months to Ukraine to address its manpower situation,” said Kofman, a senior researcher at Kharkiv University. the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said during the War on The Rocks podcast broadcast Monday.
As Russia slowly advances into eastern Ukraine, Kharkiv, one of Ukraine’s largest cities, stands in its way. The question is whether Ukraine will be able to stabilize its lines before Russia makes a possible advance toward the city this summer.
Kofman predicts that “the troop situation in Ukraine is the kind of thing that is likely to get worse before it gets better.”
Even though Ukraine will receive $61 billion in aid from the United States over the coming months, the country continually struggles to increase and maintain its front-line troops – a critical capability that the aid package is failing to achieve. to solve.
“The ammunition might arrive in two weeks, but not the manpower,” Kofman said. Ukraine has long struggled with labor problems, but the situation has gotten worse.
Earlier this year, a Ukrainian serviceman told the Washington Post that his battalion’s companies were staffed at 35 percent of normal levels.
Ukrainian military officials have requested up to 500,000 additional troops to fight. More recently, new mobilization laws took effect, and Ukrainian lawmakers took steps last month to advance a bill that would allow some imprisoned people to serve in the country’s military.
In addition to current manpower issues, Kofman said Ukraine is also grappling with the declining effectiveness of some of its precision capabilities.
Kofman said Russia has been able to adapt to how Ukraine uses these capabilities through “electronic warfare and the reorganization of Russian command, control and logistics.”
However, the labor shortage remains a major problem for Ukrainians. “In general, Ukrainian forces are still performing pretty well on defense,” he said. “The problem is that they are significantly outnumbered.”
businessinsider
