War experts are advising Ukraine to use its latest $61 billion U.S. aid package carefully because there is always the possibility that U.S. aid could be derailed again by politics.
“Each fight for each subsequent increase has become more and more contentious and longer and longer,” said Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, referring to the months-long deliberations over the latest package for the Ukraine passed in the Senate. Wednesday and past aid debates. “I think the plan should be, ‘What happens if there’s no more money?’
During a panel discussion on defense priorities Wednesday, experts such as Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, weighed in, saying that “everyone involved in this conflict should treat this aid program as if it was the latter and plan accordingly as it could be.”
The upcoming U.S. presidential election, in which the presumptive Republican nominee is far less supportive of Ukraine, as well as continued divisions in discussions over security assistance to Ukraine between political parties in Congress, could Complicating the adoption of future aid to Ukraine, which has not yet been addressed, but almost certainly will be as the war drags on.
“It’s not clear who will be in power in January,” Kavanagh said, further emphasizing that there is “certainly no appetite to start the fight in January 2025 now.”
Servicemen of the Ukrainian National Guard undergo training to storm enemy trenches using simulation equipment as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine on February 29, 2024. Anadolu via Getty Images
With U.S. aid just approved, some conflict analysts say Ukraine’s next steps to make the most of the new aid should include strengthening defenses and exploring the possibility of negotiating with Russia.
“I think Ukraine can win this war. It cannot win militarily in any way, but it can win politically,” Grieco said. “He can actually achieve a political victory by not allowing Putin to achieve his main goal, which is to subjugate Ukraine,” she said, emphasizing that “Ukraine can remain a viable and a state independent of Russia.
Both Grieco and Kavanagh stressed the importance of Ukraine coming to the negotiating table and using diplomacy with Russia to prevent further land loss.
Ukrainian soldiers reload an artillery unit on the front line, towards Kreminna, as the Russo-Ukrainian war continues in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, January 30, 2024. Ignacio Marin/Anadolu via Getty Images
Other experts, as well as Ukrainian officials, criticize calls for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and have said that Vladimir Putin would demand the “demilitarization” of Ukraine to benefit from them.
Experts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a March report that they continue to “assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains his maximalist goals in Ukraine, which amount to total capitulation.” of Ukraine and the West, and that Russia does not have maximalist goals in Ukraine. interest in good faith negotiations with Ukraine.
The ISW disputed the notion that the war is “unwinnable” for Ukraine, calling it a Russian information operation.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Russia cannot be trusted, a reality he says is proven by its documented failures to live up to past negotiations.
He reminded the world last November in a statement on social media, “Putin is a habitual liar who promised international leaders he would not attack Ukraine days before his February 2022 invasion.” Kuleba said no one could seriously expect Ukrainians to negotiate with Russia.
The problem is that six months of aid delays have put Ukraine in a difficult situation, one that may not be immediately corrected by future aid.
During Wednesday’s roundtable, Kavanagh argued that starting negotiations would also buy Ukraine time, because it’s likely the approved U.S. aid won’t arrive all at once. “The reality is that politics are involved, which means things won’t be perfect and there will be delays,” she said.
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