Ukraine loses important Chasiv Yar, it’s only a matter of time, intelligence chief says

• Ukraine will likely lose the key eastern town of Chasiv Yar to Russia, a senior intelligence official said.
• The defeat at Chasiv Yar could open the door to further in-depth and protracted battles.
• Russia is pushing for a big victory before the military celebration of Victory Day.

Ukraine is likely facing the imminent loss of a key eastern city to Russia, one of the country’s top intelligence officials said.

“Not today or tomorrow, of course, but it all depends on our reserves and supplies,” Major General Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of military intelligence, told The Economist.

Much of the town in question, Chasiv Yar, is reduced to rubble after more than a year of bombing.

But its natural hilltop position helped it serve as a staging point for Ukrainian skirmishes against the Russian advance, helping to block Russia’s route to the last free towns in the Donetsk region.

Chasiv Yar lies just west of Bakhmut, the doomed town that was reduced to nothing during nearly a year of brutal siege until its fall in May 2023.

Bakhmut was considered to have minimal strategic value.

In contrast, Chasiv Yar’s heights and proximity to major cities represent huge potential gains for Russia.

The city, which once had a population of about 13,000, is the “key” that will “open the door to exhaustive, long-lasting battles,” military analyst Serhiy Hrabsky recently told the New York Times.

Its capture would put Ukraine’s Eastern Command headquarters, Kramatorsk, and the main supply center of Kostiantynivka, both of which are home to large civilian populations, within reach of Russian forces, the outlet reported.

Last week, Russia had between 20,000 and 25,000 troops gathered around the Chasiv Yar assault, the newspaper reported.

Russia needs a victory in time for National Day

A year after the fall of Bakhmut, the capture of all eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk probably remains Russian President Vladimir Putin’s most immediate goal, Skibitsky told The Economist.

And the line becomes distorted.

While Chasiv Yar held out, Russia dug a salient about 25 miles to the southwest at the village of Ocheretyne.

Russia is doing everything it can to try to widen the gap in this area, Skibitsky said.

This comes on top of the loss of Avdiivka in February, a few kilometers further south of Chasiv Yar, which allowed Russian forces to slip further west.

The pressure will likely reach a boiling point in the coming days, Skibitsky said.

Putin is likely seeking a victory he can declare on May 9, Russia’s largest military Victory Day celebration.

During last year’s event, Ukrainian forces made every effort to hold Bakhmut until then, while Russia doubled down on its “human wave” and artillery attacks, soldiers said on site to Business Insider.

The soldiers of Chasiv Yar could well face the same assaults in the coming days. If they hold firm, another key date will be Putin’s planned visit to Beijing a week later, The Economist reported.

“Our problem is very simple: We don’t have weapons,” Skibitsky said.

The Pentagon said some of its aid could arrive in Ukraine “within days” of the recent aid bill. But, according to The Economist, in reality, much of it could take weeks to reach the front lines.