Last summer, there was widespread expectation that Ukraine’s major counteroffensive would succeed in pushing back Russian forces, paving the way for victory. This does not happen ; instead, the offensive failed and gained little ground. This failure can be directly attributed to the Western refusal to provide adequate military aid. The result was a silent backlash in domestic politics on both sides of the Atlantic, which undoubtedly contributed to the US president’s inability to get a new aid package through Congress on time, as well as to the reluctance of European countries to increase their own aid.
The combination of huge Ukrainian losses and lack of ammunition allowed Russian forces to resume the offensive and take the strategic initiative throughout the war zone. During incremental progress, they made limited but concrete gains on the front, forcing Ukraine to cede ground and causing serious damage to Ukrainian infrastructure through air attacks.
Today, the United States and the United Kingdom both announced substantial aid packages, including air defense systems, long-range missiles and munitions. Provided the delivery of these munitions is rapid, they could allow Ukraine to stabilize the front line while protecting the infrastructure of the home front. This could prove crucial in the face of a major Russian offensive this summer.
Even if the new aid programs could help alleviate this situation, they will not allow Ukraine to take the initiative and resume the offensive. One reason for this is that Russia has gained air supremacy in many areas while ground-based air defenses will remain insufficient. Another reason is that a war-weary Ukraine simply does not have enough troops and, after more than two years of hard fighting, appears reluctant to launch the major mobilization it needs.
The challenges ahead are almost insurmountable. Russia has a rapidly growing war economy and has now built up enormous levels of forces that it is willing to sacrifice to achieve Putin’s goals. If Moscow can achieve significant successes this summer, perhaps including taking Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city, there will be no appetite for more Western spending next winter.
This bleak outlook will be compounded by increased uncertainty surrounding general elections in the US and UK. It appears that, as in previous wars, Russia will have started badly but finished well thanks to a level of resolve sorely lacking among Ukraine’s Western allies.
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