Relief efforts swept the front lines in Ukraine on Saturday after the United States voted to release a long-delayed $61 billion military aid package to help defend against Russian invasion .
“We thought our partners had forgotten us,” a Ukrainian intelligence officer with the call sign Bankir told CNN.
The US House of Representatives approved the aid package, after being blocked for months due to opposition from far-right Republicans. It will now be voted on by the US Senate, where it is expected to pass.
But while it is likely that this will help halt Russia’s momentum and provide much-needed support to Ukraine in the coming months, experts warn that it will not guarantee Ukraine’s victory.
A race against time
Mark Warne, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, told CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday that military equipment should be “in transit by the end of the week.”
It’s a race against time for Ukraine. His army is short of ammunition and artillery equipment and is struggling to repel the intensifying Russian attacks. At the same time, its air defense systems lack missiles, meaning Russia is increasingly able to target Ukrainian cities and power plants.
In recent weeks, Ukraine’s leaders have issued increasingly dire warnings that they risk being defeated by Russia without more money from their allies.
Analysts say the aid bill will strengthen Ukraine’s defenses against a possible Russian offensive planned for this summer.
American-made missiles have played a crucial role for Ukraine in targeting Russian supply lines and troop buildups, while artillery has been vital in defending its positions against attacks.
The aid will allow Ukraine to replenish its supplies of vital weapons, which some sources say should have begun to ration its front lines in recent weeks.
Ukraine “will likely be able to blunt the current Russian offensive provided a resumption of U.S. aid comes quickly,” said analysts at the U.S. think tank The Institute for the Study of War.
This equipment “will help slow down the Russian advance, but not stop it,” a senior Ukrainian official told the Financial Times.
Ukraine’s future remains uncertain
Experts have long believed that Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to crush Ukrainian resistance, exploiting the fact that long-term Western support for Ukraine remains uncertain.
“Don’t forget that Russia’s annual military budget exceeds $100 billion,” note Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko on X Saturday evening. “We have gained time today, but we have not won the war. We still have to finish the job.”
Even with a huge cash infusion, it likely won’t be enough to allow Ukraine to launch a campaign to push back Russian forces, George Beebe, former head of Ukraine’s analysis unit, recently told BI. CIA Russia.
And the long-term future of U.S. aid remains uncertain, with Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, repeatedly saying he opposes funding Ukraine’s war effort.
Ukraine’s European allies have not wavered in their commitment to helping Ukraine, but have struggled to produce enough munitions and equipment to make up for the shortfall in U.S. aid this year.
Many believe the best Ukraine can hope for is to use the money to strengthen its current position, continue inflicting losses on Russia, and hope its allies will continue the aid next year.
“An aid program of such magnitude could be the last this year. Moreover, there is a fairly high probability that all subsequent aid programs for Ukraine will be much smaller,” said a former Ukrainian officer who runs the Frontelligence Insight newsletter, cited by the Financial Times.
“The aid provided by the United States buys us and the European Union time, about a year.”
For Ukraine to have confidence in its ability to win the war against Russia, it will need increased military aid beyond 2024. There is currently no guarantee that it will get sufficient amounts.
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