The timing of another referendum “depends to a large extent on political uncertainties”, he said. But he added: “I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened before 2040.”
Curtice – professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and a well-respected pollster at Westminster – argued that another referendum could not be ruled out because of the way different age groups voted in 2016.
“If you look at what has happened to attitudes so far, and if you look at the age profile of attitudes towards Brexit, you can see why,” he said. An Ipsos poll showed that 75 per cent of 18-24 year olds voted to remain (25 per cent for leave) compared to 34 per cent of 65-74 year olds (66 per cent for leave).
The attitude of a new Labor government – which POLITICO polling shows has a strong chance of winning the next election – towards the EU will also be crucial, Curtice argued. He asked: “How is our relationship with the EU evolving, to what extent will the next Labor government relax it or not?
Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy has repeatedly said the EU will be Labour’s “number one priority” in rebuilding relations with its international allies – but the party has ruled out any attempt to rejoin the bloc or its single market and customs union.
But Curtice said: “One of the things to realize is that Labor is going to be elected by an electorate that is three-quarters anti-Brexit… The Labor vote is almost as anti-Brexit as it was in 2019. »
Politices
