UK business confidence at lowest level since ‘mini-budget’: BCC

UK firms are planning to raise prices to cover higher tax payouts as confidence among businesses tumbled to its lowest level since the market-rocking “mini-budget” crisis of fall 2022, according to a survey by the British Chambers of Commerce.

The trade group said sentiment had “declined significantly” in its largest poll since the Labour government’s debut budget last October, which included a hike in the amount many employers pay out in National Insurance (NI), a tax on earnings. 

The BCC said 63% of businesses cited tax as a worry in the survey, up from 48% in the third quarter. More than half (55%) said they expect prices to go up in the next three months, primarily due to higher labor costs.

The percentage of companies saying they expected turnover to increase in the next twelve months fell to 49%, from 56%. Concerns about inflation and interest rates remained roughly steady.

The BCC cited firms across hospitality, manufacturing, construction and healthcare expressing worries about how they would cover additional costs and saying they would likely scale back investment.

“We recognize what [Reeves] said, that she’s got to increase taxes to fill her black hole, but what we need to see her do now is mitigate against that. What are we going to do to drive the economy?” Shevaun Haviland, head of the BCC, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.

“Businesses are going to have to shoulder this tax increase, but what we want to see her do is act, and they need to act quickly. It’s important that they’re putting strategies in place, industrial strategy, trade strategy, infrastructure plan, for later on this year, but we need to see action now.”

U.K. borrowing costs have climbed following the October 2024 budget, exceeding the levels they spiked to following the “mini-budget” of September 2022, which saw then-Prime Minister Liz Truss announce sweeping, uncosted tax cuts.

However, economists say the recent rise in bond yields is not equivalent to the surge seen in 2022 as the moves have been significantly less dramatic and the macro backdrop — including a cooling of inflation — has changed.