Turkey could deploy its Russian S-400 Triumf advanced air defenses to the Iraqi border for its planned summer offensive against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, in Iraqi Kurdistan. Such a move would mark the first operational deployment of the missile system since Ankara received it in 2019, despite Western reproaches.
The Turkiye newspaper reported earlier this month that Turkish S-400s could be deployed to the border, implying the country will defend itself against drones would have been acquired by the PKK. But the system is effective against bigger threats than rudimentary drones. It is designed to shoot down cruise and ballistic missiles like those fired by Iran during its unprecedented April 13 attack on Israel, and its deployment could escalate tensions with other NATO allies furious that the Turkey has them.
The S-400 deal cost Turkey around $2.5 billion. Indirectly, it cost him much more than that in losses of more than 9 billion dollars it could have manufactured more than 900 parts for the F-35’s global supply chain.
Washington banned Ankara from buying F-35s concerns this would give Russian technicians data that would spoil the fighter’s stealth. On top of all this, the United States imposed sanctions on Turkey’s arms procurement agency.
While suffering these sanctions, Turkey never put the S-400 in service. After the system was delivered, U.S. officials warned Turkey against “activating” it. Turkey tested its F-16 and F-4 fighters against the S-400’s radar in late 2019. Washington strongly reprimanded Ankara in October 2020 for announcing it was testing the system.
Since then, there has been no indication that the Turkish S-400s have been put into service. In November 2022, Hulusi Akar, then Minister of Defense said Ankara has “no problems with the S-400” and the system “is in place and ready for use.”
Its alleged upcoming deployment to the Iraqi border would be the first time that Turkish S-400s have been used five years after their receipt by Ankara.
Ali Bakir, a Turkey expert at Qatar University’s Ibn Khaldon Center and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, is skeptical of the report but does not outright rule out this possibility.
“This could be a trial balloon, an operational requirement due to the foreign threat in northern Iraq, where Turkish troops are stationed, or simply fake news,” Bakir told Business Insider. “If the S-400 is deployed for operational purposes, it could be to counter the potential threat from Iranian ballistic missiles.”
Even if other Turkish air defenses are capable of combating PKK air threats, Turkey needs an advanced system to intercept ballistic missiles fired from Iran.
“Given that Ankara has stationed troops in northern Iraq, it would make more sense to deploy such a system to protect them in the event of escalation or regional confrontation,” Bakir said. “Iran recently used missiles against northern Iraq.”
Bakir said recent missile attacks between Israel and Iran could be an additional reason to deploy the S-400 in eastern Turkey. “Such a deployment will serve the security of Turkey as well as that of Iraq, which has been improving its ties with Ankara in recent times in an unprecedented way,” Bakir said.
Deploying S-400s in an emergency to counter Iranian missiles could create “an extremely complex situation” for Turkey, said Suleyman Ozeren, a lecturer at American University and a senior fellow at the Orion Policy Institute . “We will use the Russian weapons system against Russia’s most loyal ally in the Middle East,” Ozeren told BI. “However, Turkey could use the potential threat from Iran-linked militias or the PKK as a pretext to deploy S-400s.”
He predicted that a deployment would serve three main purposes.
“First, the S-400s were one of the most expensive but also least productive policy decisions,” Ozeren said. “By deploying them and making a lot of noise, the AKP could try to silence critics at home.”
The AKP is the party of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who decided to purchase the S-400 in the late 2010s and has championed the controversial purchase ever since.
“Second, Ankara may want to prove to Moscow that its military cooperation is still valid,” Ozeren said. “Third, such a move could be aimed at sending a message to the West – primarily the United States – that Ankara’s position towards Russia and NATO remains unchanged.”
He stressed that the Turkish S-400 is an “autonomous system” incompatible with NATO systems, limiting its use and confirming its “high cost and lack of functionality”.
A Turkish deployment could escalate the ongoing conflict with the United States.
In January, Victoria Nuland, then acting assistant secretary of state, said Washington could discuss Ankara’s readmission to the F-35 program if it resolves the S-400 issue.
“The issue is not where Ankara deploys the S-400s but rather whether the S-400s remain in Turkey’s possession,” Ozeren said.
Bakir argued that weapons are purchased “with the intention of being used” for “offensive or defensive” purposes. “Even if Turkey were to hypothetically trade the S-400, the United States could still mishandle the F-35 case,” Bakir said. “There is no guarantee that Congress will not attempt to pressure Ankara in the future.”
Ozeren, on the other hand, reiterated that the fundamental problem lies in Ankara’s “purely political” decision to purchase S-400s, which he said was motivated by the AKP’s desire to distance Turkey from NATO.
“Such a goal was unattainable and unrealistic given the scale of Turkey’s integration into the NATO defense system,” Ozeren said. “The S-400 decision left Ankara in a precarious situation which remains unchanged.”
“Whatever the AKP’s motivations at the time, the reality is that the ruling party is changing course and returning to a stronger alliance with NATO.”
businessinsider
