Tuesday horse racing tips from Tom Lunn at Newmarket

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Tom Lunn has reviewed the cards, form, courses and more to help guide your horse racing betting choices.

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Horse racing tips for Tuesday April 16

• NEW MARKET
  1.20: Hallasan 5/4 (1.5pts)
  2h20: Crown Estate 6/1 one way (1 pt) and Swinger with Broadway Act (1 pt)
  3:30 p.m.: Boiling Point and Bold Style 1st/2nd and Starlore 3rd (Trifecta) (1.5 pts)

Hallasan

With flat turf racing returning to Newmarket, there is a chance for William Buick and Charlie Appleby to notch another run of winners like they did last year.

If you were to bet £1 on every Buick drive at Newmarket in 2023, you would win £37.69 on SP odds as he has racked up 26 wins from just 73 drives.

Similarly, Appleby has had 22 winners from 79 runners at Newmarket alone in 2023 with a success rate of 28%.

Both are also very clear over the last five years with a strike rate of 31% each and even higher profits for a £1 level stake.

So it’s essential to take seriously all the riders they have here, and there are a few this week.

Appleby sends its first two-year-old of the season with Hallasan and also has an excellent success rate with such horses.

The colt is the first Pinatubo foal to be seen, which could be a good sign of things to come if he wins, for Godolphin.

Hallasan is a half-brother to many 5f sprinters, including Al Raya, Grisons, So Many Questions and Mystify Me, all by Fig Roll.

So all the statistics are behind him for it to be a good start.

Crown Estate and Swinger

Broadway Act, another for Buick and Appleby, never lived up to that first race as he was second to Macduff who has since become a 107 rated horse with decent placings in List and Group competitions since this victory.

While Broadway Act had to be three times lucky to secure his first victory and was again denied the favorite’s place in his last race here in October.

But a lot of times with these horses, they really start to bond after they’re gelded.

Which he was just five days after his last race – and with four races here on 7f he has vital experience that many of them don’t have with a potentially low rating to exploit.

However, Crown Estate distanced itself from Native King last time around during the King’s seasonal debut.

Owned by John & Thady Gosden, this colt has clearly progressed very well over the winter, coupled with a wind operation and being a gelding, so he should be an excellent profit opportunity at 6 each way.

Boiling Point and Bold Style 1st/2nd and Starlore 3rd (Trifecta)

Putting quite a bit on the line to achieve this Trifecta, but it appears to be the way to go with the potential for progression from Godolphin runner Bold Style who could be yet another winner for the dominant Newmarket team.

Boiling Point’s form is exceptional, with that in the Tattersall Stakes working very well.

Alyanaabi was just a head ahead when it counted, then placed second to City Of Troy in the Dewhurst, and thus achieved a GOLD of 114.

Others in this area have also confirmed this form for Boiling Point, but you can’t put all the stakes on him as he has only taken one lead so far and needs some caution during its seasonal debut.

Bold Style could be even better with the way he won last time out at Chelmsford and as said before you can’t rule out the Godolphin runners from the Appleby yard.

Starlore is in great form on the turf and could relish this season as a three-year-old for Sir Michael Stoute under Ryan Moore. But it’s hard to see him coming back with a win against the top two, although with Moore on board it’s still a possibility.

But the trifecta is paying off as the market seeks to make the most of it.

Running Tips from Tom Lunn Profit + Loss

• October-Present: +147.19pts
• Total from July 2023: +220.56pts

All ratings correct at time of writing

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