Trump’s trolling and tariffs hastened Trudeau’s demise. How will Canada handle it now?

Canadians woke up Tuesday to an uncertain future, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he would resign and end his near-decade in power.

Trudeau’s announcement comes just days into an election year and follows weeks of mounting pressure from his own party for him to resign as he struggles with disastrous poll results , in part due to soaring inflation, rising immigration and his handling of President-elect Donald Trump.

“If I have to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option” in the upcoming Canadian election, Trudeau, 53, told reporters in Ottawa.

His decision sparked an urgent search within the Liberal Party to identify a new candidate capable of taking on Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Poilievre dominates the polls and comes last with 44% according to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, compared to Trudeau – whose rating is just above 20%.

The Trump factor

Canada’s next leader will focus primarily on managing his country’s relationship with the new Trump administration.

After winning re-election in November, the president-elect pledged to impose 25% tariffs on all products imported from Canada and Mexico.

While Trudeau sought to appease Trump by visiting him at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, the new president has since repeatedly jabbed the prime minister, suggesting making Canada the 51st state and reiterating the idea in response to Trudeau’s resignation.

Trudeau’s treatment of Trump precipitated the final blow to his tenure, with the high-profile departure last month of his deputy prime minister and finance minister, Chrystia Freeland. In a scathing resignation letter, she accused Trudeau of failing to take seriously Trump’s threats to increase import tariffs on Canadian goods.

Freeland warned that Canada must take Trump’s plans “extremely seriously” and avoid “expensive political gimmicks.”

Unlike Trudeau, Poilievre — the former Conservative minister’s biography describes him as a “long-time conservative” and a “champion of the free market” — sought to present himself as the candidate with “the strength and intelligence to to defend this country. »

In an interview with Canada’s CTV News last month, Poilievre said his first message to the new president was “that, first and foremost, Canada will never be the 51st state of the United States” — and Canada, has -he said, had a “very proud future ahead of us.”

Tari Ajadi, professor of politics at McGill University in Montreal, was less sure. He told NBC News that Poilievre has yet to produce a clear plan on how to approach Canada-U.S. relations under Trump, adding that “I think Canada is going to have a difficult time.”

What is happening now?

Even if Trudeau resigns, Canadians will have to wait months before they can go to the polls.

The date of the election has not yet been announced and, although the Canada Elections Act states that it must take place no later than October 20, Trudeau’s resignation means it is likely that a vote will be called before this date.

Before that happens, the Liberal Party must find a candidate. Trudeau said he would remain as party leader until his party colleagues have undertaken a “robust, competitive, nation-wide process” to find his successor.

Meanwhile, Trudeau said Canada’s governor general had accepted his request to prorogue Parliament, suspending proceedings without dissolving Parliament until March 24. Then a vote of confidence is expected to take place, with a no-confidence result triggering the next federal vote. election.

This means that the Liberal government will remain in power, but parliamentary activity will stop.

Referring to his party’s lack of a working-class majority and Canada’s legislative gridlock, Trudeau said Monday that “Parliament was paralyzed for months after what was the longest session of a minority parliament in the history of Canada.

Who will replace Trudeau?

Trudeau, a former teacher who campaigned on the slogan “sunny ways,” took office in November 2015 and enjoyed widespread popularity early in his term thanks to the promise of liberal reforms, progressive tax policies and of the emphasis on gender equality.

His initial appeal was also bolstered by the legacy of his father, the charismatic but polarizing Pierre Trudeau, who was one of Canada’s longest-serving leaders.

But in recent years, Trudeau’s approval rating has plummeted, from about 65% in September 2016 to about 22% in December, according to the nonprofit Angus Reid Institute.

According to figures from the Angus Reid Institute, former journalist Freeland is the Liberal candidate most likely to beat Poilievre.

Former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is also a candidate and the Conservatives have sensed this. They’ve been attacking Carney for a long time, with Poilievre calling him “just like Justin.”

But whoever Trudeau succeeds, “it’s hard to imagine anyone who can hold on to the government in the next election,” Peter Loewen, a professor of government at Cornell University, told NBC News.

Dominic LeBlanc, Minister of Finance and Intergovernmental Affairs and longtime friend of Trudeau, and Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly are also potential candidates.

With Trudeau’s departure, the Liberal Party appears to be facing an existential crisis.

“Trudeau was a singular figure in Canadian politics,” said Ajadi, of McGill University. “There is not another Justin Trudeau waiting in the wings.”