NEW YORK (AP) — Donald Trump still says he’s proud that the Supreme Court justices he appointed overturned Roe v. Wade. Yet he once again avoided tough questions on abortion on Monday, including whether he would support a national ban on abortion if he returned to the White House.
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee tried to put an end to an issue widely seen as a liability for the general election. Instead, his video statement exposed the difficult road ahead and inflamed leaders on both sides of the issue.
Religious conservatives said they were deeply disappointed. Progressives said he was lying. And all indications are that abortion will define the 2024 election, no matter what Trump does or says — largely because Republicans in Congress and in states across the country continue to fight for new restrictions.
Here are some takeaways that explore the complex politics of Trump’s latest statement.
IN SEARCH OF SAFE POLITICAL GROUND
For Trump, struggles over abortion, like any other major issue, have always been about winning. So it should come as no surprise that he avoided approving a ban on Monday.
Trump has long tried to avoid supporting nationwide restrictions that could be a political disaster for Republicans struggling to win back key groups — particularly suburban women — who have turned their backs on the Republican Party in recent years.
Trump remains eager to take credit for overturning Roe v. Wade. He did it again in the video posted Monday on his social media site. But even at the state level, the abortion bans enacted after Roe was overturned were deeply unpopular.
So, Trump simply tried to return abortion to the states.
“States will determine by vote or legislation, or perhaps both. And whatever they decide, it must be the law of the land,” Trump said of abortion rights. “Now it’s up to the states to do the right thing.”
Religious conservatives, of course, have fought for decades against abortion rights on the grounds that abortion must be stopped at all costs – even if they pay the price at the ballot box.
But Trump wants to win in 2024. And in his statement, he made it clear that he was trying to make the best of a bad political situation for him and his party.
“We have to win,” he said. “We have to win.”
A TEST FOR TRUMP’S BASIS
The indignation of the Democrats was expected. The fierce infighting within Trump’s Republican Party was not.
“We are deeply disappointed by President Trump’s position,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the anti-abortion group Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, who refused to endorse his former running mate this year, put it this way: “President Trump’s backtracking on the right to life is a slap in the face to millions of pro-life Americans . »
On social media, some conservatives latched onto Trump’s reference to the term “abortion rights,” arguing that no such rights exist. Even Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a vocal Trump ally, said on X that he “respectfully” disagreed with Trump’s new position.
As he often does, Trump attacked his detractors by name.
“Lindsey, Marjorie and others fought for years, unsuccessfully, until I came along and did the job. Then they disappeared, never heard from again, until now,” Trump said on social media. He added: “Democrats are excited about Lindsey because they want this issue to simmer for as long as possible. »
Despite the infighting, Trump’s team is calculating that his evangelical base, among the most loyal elements of his coalition, will support him when it matters most. And recent history suggests he’s probably right.
Dannenfelser and others have been pushing Trump for several months to pass a national ban on abortion. Trump, of course, did not. And yet, Trump won an easy victory in the Republican primaries.
He even won the Iowa caucuses, historically run by religious conservatives, by 30 points.
If his dithering on abortion did not hurt him with the Republican base during the primary, it is difficult to see them turning against him this fall.
BIDEN’S RE-ELECTION MOBILIZES
Democrats would have had more ammunition in November if Trump had publicly adopted a national plan on abortion on Monday. But Biden’s party still has work to do.
Even in Monday’s statement, Trump said he was “proudly responsible” for overturning Roe.
Within hours, the Biden campaign released a scathing new ad featuring a woman who nearly died after being denied medical care due to restrictive abortion laws enacted after Roe was overturned.
“Donald Trump did this,” the ad says while Texas cries in the background.
Prominent pro-choice groups have also lashed out, with many saying Trump cannot be trusted after his leading role in overturning abortion rights. Biden issued a seven-paragraph statement calling Trump singularly “responsible for creating the cruelty and chaos that has enveloped America” since Roe was overturned.
“Trump is struggling,” the Democrat said. “He fears that since he is responsible for overturning Roe, voters will hold him accountable in 2024. Well, I have news for Donald. They’re going.”
National Democrats plan to blame Trump not only for banning abortion in conservative-led states, but also for restricting fertility treatments in Alabama after the state Supreme Court ruled ruled that embryos should be considered children and have legal protections.
Biden’s campaign announced Sunday that it would hold campaign events featuring two women, one from Texas and the other from Louisiana, affected by restrictive abortion laws enacted by Republicans.
Meanwhile, Republicans simply don’t have an effective counterargument.
In his video, Trump repeated the Republican Party’s long-standing argument that it is Democrats, not Republicans, who are extreme on abortion because they support unrestricted abortion rights . Such arguments, while debatable, have not been effective over the past two years. Conservatives suffered crushing defeats in elections dominated by the debate over abortion rights, from Kentucky to Ohio to Michigan.
BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN
On Monday, Trump spoke with more substance than we are accustomed to. But he hardly put the problem aside.
Trump will almost certainly continue to engage with religious conservatives who have condemned his position. Perhaps more importantly, he will also be asked to clarify key questions that he has completely avoided.
Trump has not explicitly stated whether or not, if re-elected, he would sign a national abortion ban if it reaches his desk.
Although such a proposal is unlikely to reach the 60-vote threshold in the Senate, a majority of House Republicans have approved a national ban on abortion as part of an unveiled budget proposal this spring by the Republican Study Committee.
At the same time, Trump has not outlined his position on a ballot measure in Florida that would preserve abortion rights in the state constitution if approved in November. Trump, of course, is a Florida resident who will have the opportunity to vote for or against the proposal.
A new Florida law signed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis will soon take effect, banning abortions at six weeks of pregnancy, before many women realize they are pregnant. Trump promised last week that he would release the statement he made Monday after being asked about the state law.
Also left unanswered: Does Trump support access to the FDA-approved abortion drug mifepristone, which is widely available through the mail.
ALWAYS A DEFINITIVE QUESTION
Whether Trump’s Republican Party likes it or not, abortion will be a defining issue for many voters as they decide the presidency this fall.
The overturning of Roe is still fresh for many voters who are just beginning to grapple with Republican-backed abortion restrictions in their states. At the same time, voters in several states are expected to decide whether to enshrine abortion rights in state law this November.
At this time, it is unclear how many states will vote on pro-abortion ballot measures. In some cases, the question is whether supporters of the amendment will be able to obtain enough valid signatures. In others, it depends on the legislator. And there are legal wranglings in the process in some states.
So far, abortion rights are definitely on the ballot in Florida, Maryland and New York. And efforts are also underway to do the same in Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada and South Dakota.
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