Equally striking is the extent to which the Republican Party hierarchy – and arguably the tens of millions of ordinary citizens who follow their lead – have rallied behind Trump to question and, in many cases, condemn a system judicial which has been a pillar of American democracy. . The measured responses regarding the jury’s work were the exception rather than the rule.
Two big questions could now define the debate between Trump and Biden. The first is which candidate poses the greatest threat to the future of the country. The second is which candidate will make Americans’ lives better than they are today. Although related, the former focuses on character and temperament, the latter on substance and politics.
For supporters of the outgoing president, the answers to these two questions are simple and direct. It is the former president who represents the obvious danger, someone who swears revenge on his adversaries; would allow a restriction of freedoms, including access to abortion; favors an expansion of executive power that could lead to authoritarian rule and undermine democratic institutions; and, internationally, disrupt or break traditional alliances. And it is Biden who they see as both committed to protecting democratic institutions while pursuing policies that would support American families, combat climate change and advocate a leadership role for the United States in the world.
William Galston of the Brookings Institution cited a domestic priority Trump cited as an example of the threat he would pose if elected to another term. “If Trump is serious about arresting and deporting 10 to 15 million illegal immigrants, it will require a profound transformation not only of law enforcement, but of the U.S. military and many aspects of American society,” he said. he declared. “This would represent a profound disruption for every city. Removing 10 to 15 million people from the body politic is essential.”
But for every Biden supporter who believes these answers are obvious, polls suggest there are as many, if not more, Trump supporters who believe the opposite. The New York trial has increased distrust of the justice system by unfairly targeting, they say, their champion in order to weaken his political position. They blame Biden for causing suffering to many families, increasing illegal immigration, degrading society itself, and, globally, overseeing the decline of power and American prestige. They believe they were better off under Trump’s presidency than they are today — and that four more years with Biden as president poses the greatest threat.
Trump’s seven-week trial on charges of falsifying business records in an attempt to influence the outcome of the 2016 election amounts to a prolonged freeze on a campaign that has been stagnant since last year. The former president was expected to be present in the courtroom most of the time, silent except for regular tirades to reporters as he left court. Meanwhile, Biden declined to comment in any way for fear of fueling Trump and his allies’ claim that the trial was part of a political effort to bring down his rival.
On Friday, the two men spoke about the verdict. Trump offered a lengthy, grievance-filled monologue filled with lies and meanderings about the state of the country and the injustice of the trial – a “rigged” process, as he repeatedly put it – and claimed that “ we live in a fascist state. Hours later, Biden defended the justice system and said it was “reckless…dangerous and irresponsible” for anyone to question the verdict simply because they don’t like the outcome, while recognizing the legal right to Trump to appeal.
Neither the candidates, nor their campaigns, nor their surrogates are likely to back down from these positions. The bigger question is whether Trump in particular can begin to move away from the trial and the campaign to focus on the American people rather than himself. History suggests he will have a hard time making this turn – and his lengthy diatribe on Friday provided evidence of how the trial has affected him.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a former Trump confidant who ran against him in the primary, told Democratic strategist David Axelrod and Republican strategist Mike Murphy last week for their podcast “Hacks on Tap » that too much attention was paid to the manner in which a guilty person was guilty. the verdict would affect voters.
“It’s not just the impact that this will have on the voters that is important,” Christie said, “but it’s the impact that it will have on him, because he will become angrier and more more and more paranoid. And I don’t think that makes him an attractive candidate for the small group of voters he has to try to win over to win back the presidency.”
Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg said in an email: “Trump is going to run on rigged courts and rigged elections. I don’t think he can help it, although it would be better if he talked about inflation. Biden is going to run on democratic norms, women’s rights – especially abortion – and the rule of law, and he will be able to ask voters if they want a convicted felon as president.
Ultimately, said Rich Bond, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, “the tipping point will be which voters consider the most dangerous choice.” Do they stick with an aging incumbent with a questionable record? Or are they entrusting their future to a convicted criminal who lies about almost everything except his desire to become a budding dictator?
Three other Trump cases are pending, two involving his role in trying to overturn the 2020 election; the third charge is that he deliberately concealed classified documents. Given the delays in each of them, it now seems likely, although not certain, that none of the others will be heard before the election.
But the New York trial isn’t the only big event in the coming weeks that could sway voters and perhaps change their minds. On Monday, Hunter Biden will go on trial in Delaware on felony gun charges, the first of two trials that could result in a conviction for the president’s son. By the end of the month, the Supreme Court is expected to rule on Trump’s request for absolute immunity from prosecution, which could impact the Jan. 6 federal case. And on June 27, Biden and Trump will meet in Atlanta for the first of two planned debates. (A second is planned for September 10.)
On July 11, Trump will appear in court in New York for sentencing in the secret trial. Four days later, Republicans will gather in Milwaukee for their national convention to formally nominate Trump, and at some point during that window he will name his running mate. Democrats will gather in Chicago in August for their convention, fearing protests over Biden’s handling of the Israel-Gaza war.
In the short term, Trump’s conviction has energized Republicans, just as the four indictments a year ago solidified support around his bid for the Republican Party nomination. From House Speaker Mike Johnson (La.) to scores of other elected officials, Republicans have used the verdict as evidence of a militarized justice system. Trump’s campaign claimed to have raised $52.8 million in online donations in the 24 hours after the verdict, and some Republican strategists see the verdict as an opportunity now to offend Biden by portraying Democrats as the defenders of a corrupt system.
Political strategists are rightly cautious about whether the conviction will impact the campaign. The polls have changed little for several months. Trump holds a slight advantage nationally and in battleground states, but many of these polls are within the margin of error. They suggest, however, that Biden faces a difficult path to an electoral majority.
Some polls taken before the verdict indicated that a conviction could prompt some Trump supporters to step aside. Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said she was convinced that the outcome of the trial will have an impact, real or indirect, in particular on the perception of the character of the two candidates. “It helps shift the axis of character from strength and weakness, which is what Trump wanted, to stability and presidential character, which serves Biden better,” she said.
Lake is part of the Biden campaign’s polling operation, but said she doesn’t speak on behalf of the campaign.
The verdict gives Biden the opportunity to try to change the scenario and the Atlanta debate will be the most high-profile moment for him. One Democratic strategist said one of the challenges Biden has faced so far is that many voters fear a second Biden term more than Trump’s return to the Oval Office. The verdict could change these perceptions, particularly among suburban women.
Many voters expressed disappointment at having to choose between Biden and Trump. Many are cynical about the state of politics. It is also unclear what impact the verdict will have on them, but it is possible that some will choose to vote for a third-party candidate or simply not vote in the presidential race.
The elections are in five months. After Thursday’s verdict, the election poses fundamental questions to voters more than ever: about themselves, about their own well-being and perhaps above all about the country they want to see in the future. The question behind them is who they trust more to get this done, Biden or Trump.
washingtonpost
