It could also become the only indictment Trump faces that goes to trial.
For some time now, of these four indictments, the Manhattan indictment has been widely considered by Americans to be the most dubious. An Associated Press poll, conducted by NORC, found that the perception that Trump violated the law in the Manhattan case declined throughout 2023, driven by increased skepticism from Democrats.
This continues to be the case. In a poll released this week by Ipsos (on behalf of Reuters), Americans were least likely to say that the charges in Manhattan – unlike the federal charges in Washington DC and Florida or those in Georgia – were very or quite serious. Only a little more than a third of those surveyed indicated they thought the charges against Manhattan were very serious.
A likely reason for this is inadvertently revealed in the poll question: The Manhattan case, unlike, say, the attempt to overturn the 2020 election, is complicated.
Trump is accused of creating falsified business records and recording payments to his then-lawyer, Michael Cohen, as legal retainers. In reality, the money was intended to reimburse Cohen for paying $130,000 to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, real name Stephanie Clifford, which prosecutors say was intended to prevent him from publicly revealing a sexual relationship she said she had with Trump years earlier. Cohen admitted to making this payment and making it to help Trump’s campaign, a violation of campaign finance laws. And since the allegedly falsified records were used to cover up another crime, the charges against Manhattan are a felony.
There was another payment in the same period to Playboy model Karen McDougal. This one was covered by the National Enquirer’s parent company, on Trump’s behalf. But this is not part of the accusations against Manhattan, despite the wording of the Ipsos question.
The other obvious factor here is partisanship. Republicans are largely less likely to rate accusations against Trump as serious, regardless of the accusation at hand. Only a quarter of Republicans believe that the accusations related to the attempt to overturn the 2020 elections are very serious.
What’s more, Republicans have consistently told Ipsos that the (sometimes inaccurate) descriptions of the underlying crimes are not particularly credible. Only a third of Republicans, for example, said it was very or somewhat credible that Trump illegally removed classified documents from the White House and took them to his Mar-a-Lago property. Interestingly, the secret payments – only one of which was ultimately paid by Trump – were most often described as credible.
Instead, Republicans were much more likely to view the entire effort to indict Trump as politically motivated.
How complicated are the Manhattan charges? On Wednesday, Trump attempted to portray them as somewhat subverted by a statement Daniels released in early 2018 denying having a relationship with Trump — a statement that was a direct result of the cover-up for which he paid $130,000! It was silence that made money, but many of his supporters took it for granted that this statement was important in one way or another. (Daniels later retracted this.)
Part of that could stem from something revealed earlier this year in a YouGov poll: Many Republicans simply don’t know the details of the Trump-centered indictments and settlements. (This poll included intentionally false claims about Trump’s actions to gauge how often people responded simply based on their opinion of Trump.)
This is undoubtedly linked to the denigration of the indictments within the right-wing media bubble and the disinterest of Trump supporters in the accusations.
That said, there’s also another factor worth considering: A good portion of Trump’s base believes he committed serious federal crimes — and supports him for president anyway.
Most Republicans simply think it’s all political, a view Trump has continually promoted even before he took office. They think Trump’s opponents are trying to block his path to the presidency or want to punish him. Many appear to believe that Trump’s actions are not exceptional, a belief that special counsel Jack Smith, who initiated two of Trump’s indictments, explicitly rejected in a court filing this week.
The fact that the first criminal case Trump will participate in is one that is considered less than very serious by most Americans cannot disabuse them of that perception. Or maybe something else will happen: Americans will better understand what Trump did and why, and their view of his actions will change.
If they hear about the trial, of course.
washingtonpost
