
Pro-Trump supporters met at the National Mall before the inauguration of President Trump on January 20 in Washington, DC.
Jim vondruska / getty images
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tilting legend
Jim vondruska / getty images
Even if all those who are eligible to vote in the country would have voted, President Trump would have always won the presidential election in 2024, A new study Pew Research Center Thursday reveals.
Trump won in 2024 with just under 50% of votes, 49.7% at 48.2% compared to Democrat Kamala Harris.
Roughly 64% of the eligible voting population has proven In 2024, the second highest since 1904,2020 was the highest.
But even if everyone who could vote did, Trump would have won by an even wider margin, 48% to 45%, according to the survey validated by the PEW voters.
The survey of nearly 9,000 voters was carried out in the weeks following the 2024 presidential election. Pew checked whether or not they had voted in the last five presidential elections using commercial files accessible to the public. For the context, the most well conducted national polls include around 1,000 interviews.
Pew asked the non-abutors how they would have voted and discovered that they would have broken for Trump, 44% to 40%. This is a big change compared to 2020 and 2016 when they said they would have chosen the Democrats. In 2020, they said they preferred Joe Biden 46% to 35%. In 2016It was Hillary Clinton, 37% -30%.
This upsets a long -standing belief in politics according to which a higher participation rate generally helps democrats. The younger and non -white voters, who tend to vote democratic, are also among the least likely to vote.
But in 2024, Trump’s coalition grew up – it became more diverse and younger.
In 2016, almost 9 out of 10, Trump voters were white (88%). In 2024, it was 78%.
Meanwhile, Harris’ coalition became white – 64% of Harris voters were white against 60% in 2016 for Clinton.
Trump was also able to hold more from his coalition from 2020 than Harris de Biden. Trump won 85% of his voters 2020; Harris won 79% of Biden.
About 15% of Biden voters did not vote, 5% went to Trump and 1% voted for someone else. It was compared to 11% of Trump 2020 voters, who seated it, 3% who went to Harris and 1% who opted for someone else.
In addition, Trump won more than those who did not vote in 2020 but decided to vote in 2024. Almost three-quarters of the non-voters stayed at home. But with a margin of 52% to 45%, Trump won these 2020 non-voters who voted in 2024.
Looking at all eligible voters, including those who stayed at home, Trump won 32% of this total population. Harris won 31%.