Trump will end the war in Ukraine, and Russia knows it

Russia has been an indirect beneficiary of the war in Gaza as it has distracted the United States and other Western countries from their ongoing war in Ukraine.

But now that there is a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and a whole new peace process has begun, US President Donald Trump is turning his attention to ending the war in Ukraine.

The president said Thursday that he and other “high-level advisors” would meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest, Hungary, to discuss how to end the war. This followed a call with the two leaders in which Trump said Putin had congratulated him on the “great achievement of peace in the Middle East.”

“President Putin and I will then meet at a convenient location, Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can end this ‘inglorious’ war between Russia and Ukraine. … I believe great progress has been made through today’s phone conversation,” Trump said in a message on Truth Social.

The meeting will be the second time the leaders have met face to face during Trump’s second term, and it could take place within the next two weeks, according to the US leader.

The White House is notably turning up the heat on Moscow by raising the possibility of supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles. Trump is scheduled to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Friday, with the leaders expected to discuss the issue.

Earlier in the week, Trump told reporters he might use the Tomahawk missiles as leverage with Russia, saying he could tell Putin: “Look: If this war doesn’t settle, I’m going to send them Tomahawks.”

In another sign that the administration may be ready to step up its military support for kyiv, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth promised Wednesday that “firepower” would arrive in Ukraine, although he did not mention the Tomahawks by name.

Trump made no secret this week that he and his envoys plan to immediately renew efforts to end the war in Ukraine as it approaches its fourth anniversary.

Speaking to Israeli lawmakers Monday as he celebrated a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, Trump told the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, “We have to end Russia.”

“Steve, let’s focus on Russia first, okay? We’ll get there,” Trump said, addressing US special envoy Steve Witkoff.

After boasting before his second term that he could end the war in Ukraine in “just one day,” he acknowledged that it had proven trickier than expected, noting, “I thought this would be easy to sort out.” I thought it was a lot easier than doing what we just did (in Gaza). »

Victoria Coates, vice president of the Heritage Foundation’s Davis Institute, told CNBC this week that the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas would likely impact the war between Russia and Ukraine.

“The momentum behind resolving the conflict in Gaza can help achieve a resolution to the war in Ukraine,” Coates, deputy national security adviser in the first Trump administration, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday.

“All these other countries that the president met (this week), and getting them to support resolving the conflict, (can lead to) maybe putting pressure on Putin to come to the table. So that can have a positive effect on Ukraine,” she said.

Of course, the big question now is whether Russia is willing to play along with Trump and his team.

The Kremlin appears keen to demonstrate its willingness to work towards an end to the conflict, even though critics (notably Ukraine) say Russia is adept at employing delaying tactics in order to prolong the war and make territorial gains.

On Tuesday, the Kremlin reiterated the Russian position, hotly contested by kyiv and its Western allies, according to which it is Ukrainian intransigence which prevents the end of the war launched by Russia in February 2022.

“Certainly, we welcome such intentions, we welcome the confirmation of the political will to help in every possible way in the search for peaceful solutions,” the Russian president’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said on Tuesday in comments reported by Interfax.

Russia “remains open and ready for a peace dialogue,” Peskov said, adding that “we hope that the influence of the United States and the diplomatic prowess of President Trump’s envoys will certainly help to influence the Ukrainian side to be more ready for a peace process.”

CNBC has contacted the Kremlin for further comment on its expectations for resuming negotiations with the United States and is awaiting a response.

In addition to touting the prospect of giving Tomahawks to Ukraine – which the Kremlin acknowledged last Sunday was “extremely concerning” – Trump has put pressure on Russia’s allies, imposing tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil.

Trump, who recently called Russia a “paper tiger,” has also repeatedly threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia itself, but has so far resisted, disappointing kyiv and other Western partners.

The Tomahawk negotiations could be a turning point for Russia, according to Peter Dickinson, editor of the Atlantic Council think tank’s Ukraine Alert publication. Dickinson said Tuesday that would be the case if Trump was willing to bluff Putin by pledging to deliver Tomahawks, whether or not he actually ends up doing so.

“Trump must now decide whether he will bluff Putin and arm Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles. There are growing indications that he may be inclined to do so,” Dickinson said.

“Trump now has an opportunity to convince his Russian counterpart that he is not as easily intimidated as other Western leaders and is more than ready to increase pressure on Moscow until Putin agrees to pursue peace,” he said in an online analysis.

“Many of Trump’s critics will no doubt scoff at the idea of ​​the US president taking such a hardline stance towards Putin, but few objective observers would question that this approach is the only way to end the war,” he said.