Cnn
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President Donald Trump has teased an important commercial announcement which will be announced Thursday – a familiar source with the administration’s plans told CNN that the agreement will be the United Kingdom.
It is still another sign of possible relief from historically high prices that have threatened serious damage to American and global economies.
“Big press conference tomorrow morning at 10:00 am, the Oval office, concerning an important trade agreement with representatives of a large and very respected country. The first of many !!!” Trump posted on Wednesday evening on Truth Social.
In his article, Trump did not specify which country, but his administration suggested that it was in active negotiation with India, the United Kingdom, South Korea and Japan. Trump’s best sales advisor Peter Navarro told CNN on Tuesday that he suspected that the United Kingdom could be the first country to sign a trade agreement with the United States.
“I do not know if it will be the first in the United Kingdom or India, it is-we have a small turn in the history of India, so it could slow things there, but I can assure the American people that there will be offers, and they will be very good for the American people,” said Navarro.
The Financial Times said on Tuesday that a trade agreement in the United Kingdom could be signed this week and could exempt the United States from certain non-tariff commercial obstacles, including 2% digital services of the United Kingdom billed to American technological companies. In exchange, the United States could facilitate the price load of the United Kingdom, perhaps reducing or exempting the country by 25% of aluminum, steel and cars, the FT reported.
For weeks, Trump officials said they were talking to more than a dozen countries and approached an agreement, but none has so far been announced. Trump has often said that he was not in a hurry to sign an agreement, saying that the countries “has been ripping” America for years and that the high prices that the United States has imposed will help balance trade.
Despite the rhetoric of the administration that he is in advanced commercial negotiations with more than a dozen countries, real commercial transactions take a long time, often years, to chop. They generally involve incredibly complex chords, plunging into the minute of various goods and non -tariff barriers. They often involve important political considerations because various parties seek to protect voters with particular interests.
Instead, Trump’s “deal” has teased is more likely a memorandum of understanding. This can lead to a decrease in prices on the goods of a private country in the short term, but they will not do much that is equivalent to a substantial economic victory for a while.
And this is only one agreement. The “reciprocal” prices which entered into force on April 7 and were interrupted for 90 days on April 9 affect dozens of countries. A hundred others are subject to the universal rate at 10%. The administration cannot do them all by July 8.
“The 90-day tariff break, which is now about 25% more, gives a short time to typical commercial discussions that require months, even years, to create a trade agreement,” said Jacob Jensen, trade policy analyst for the American Action Forum, a central-right political institute.
“There is a significant difference if these transactions are official and written trade agreements rather than verbal commitments to buy more American products, because one has long-term economic implications and the other can be ignored on the line,” he added.
Trump said last month that he would not extend the prices a second time – and, in fact, could act earlier to restore certain prices with the countries with which his administration cannot reach an agreement, perhaps in a few weeks.
“It will be difficult for the US trade representative to potentially negotiate 100 separate trade agreements within 90 days, which means that President Trump must soon determine whether the prices will be reintegrated or delayed,” said Jensen.
And even if the transactions are finally concluded with all the countries, there is no guarantee that Trump would keep them. For example, Trump, during his first mandate, played a decisive role in the negotiation of the USMCA free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, to abandon it to its second mandate, by invoicing a 25% rate outside of certain Mexican and Canadian goods. And by placing significant prices on practically all the goods entering the United States, Trump has also exploded a certain number of existing trade agreements with allies.
Trump’s announcement of a trade agreement is the second significant sign this week that the administration could be opened to negotiations which would ultimately reduce certain prices on foreign nations.
Tuesday, the secretary of the treasury, Scott Bessent, said that he and the US trade representative Jamieson Greer will both go to Geneva, Switzerland, where they will meet their Chinese counterparts.
Although Bessent told Fox News not to expect a major trade agreement, he admitted that it was an important step in negotiations and could defuse the tensions that led the United States to place at least a 145% rate on most Chinese products. In turn, China has placed a 125% price on American goods.
Trump, however, said on Wednesday that he would not reduce high prices on China before discussions, which, according to Beijing, had previously declared that it was a prerequisite for talks.
When asked in the oval office if it was open to withdraw the historically high prices to bring China to the negotiation table, Trump simply replied: “No.”
Nevertheless, any thaw in the trade war could be a welcome sign for companies and consumers in both countries and worldwide.
Punitive prices have already damaged the world’s savings – especially that of America. The US economy was reversed in the first quarter, its first contraction in three years, while companies stored goods in anticipation of Trump’s “liberation day”, which started in the second quarter.
Although the confrontation of China-US is by far the most aggressive, Trump has also imposed important prices on most other countries in the world: a universal tariff at 10% on almost all goods entering the United States, more prices of 25% on steel, aluminum, cars, automotive parts and certain goods from Mexico and Canada.
So, the world will look at the announcement Thursday and the American-chinese discussions this weekend with anticipation.
The president of the federal reserve, Jerome Powell, said on Wednesday at a press conference that prices could seriously make damage to the American economy. But he said that the trade talks that the United States holds with foreign countries could prevent the worst case.
The global economists of the International Monetary Fund, the OECD and the World Bank have all predicted that the Trump trade war would have disastrous effects on the global economy, considerably slowing growth in certain countries, while reviving inflation. Many American economists and large banks predict that the United States could enter a recession this year.
This story has been updated with additional developments and context.
