Trump strikes Japan with 25% Tokyo rate should have seen coming

Hearing that the approval rating of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was below 28%, it is difficult not to wonder how it could be so high.

The last reason for the misfortune of Ishiba is a scandal on gift vouchers to its colleagues members of the Liberal Democratic Party. But the real problem is an economy that Ishiba has neglected since its takeover on October 1, a just aggravated by American president Donald Trump.

On Wednesday, the news that Trump slaps 25% of prices on imports of foreign cars and car parts marks a climbing of an upcoming trade war that Ishiba’s party had hoped to avoid.

However, it is an Ishiba and the LDP should have seen coming.

In early February, Ishiba had her first sitdown with Trump, a meeting of supreme importance for the 125 million people in Japan. There, Ishiba said that he had established a solid relationship with Trump. The subtext is that Ishiba could be about to protect Japan from Trump prices, including cars.

Not as long as the Japanese markets are preparing for the opposite winds of Trumpian to come. The Ishiba team did not pay attention if it did not see this indignity coming.

Part of the problem here is how Tokyo has learned the bad lessons in the Trump 1.0 2017-2021 era. Then he was the partner of the Ishiba party, Shinzo Abe, struggling with the way of managing Trump.

For many, Abe has skillfully done so. However, it is more myth than done. For all ABE ramps, Japan has failed to obtain an exemption from Trump taxes on steel, aluminum and other goods. Despite ABE procedural acts, Trump withdrew from the transpacific partnership, a key element of the Tokyo plan to contain China.

Trump World even humiliated Abe by letting him know that Abe had appointed the American leader for a Nobel Peace Prize. This despite Trump mocking the North Korean leader Kim Jong one in a way that endangered the national security of Japan.

This idea that Abe was a kind of “Trump Whisperer” put Ishiba to failure. Since February 7, Trump has actually brought together Japan with China while Asian savings handling exchange rates. Trump also exploded Tokyo’s rotation that Ishiba left with a victory over the conceptions of Japanese Steel over Us Steel.

Now Japan achieves futility to do business with Trump 2.0. Tokyo officials like to call Trump a transactional leader. Trump does not negotiate, he extorts. Give him an inch, he will be back in a month to demand a few kilometers from Tokyo.

The Trumpian storm to come greatly complicates the chances of Ishiba to avoid being included in the formidable 12 -month tokyo club. Although Abe has lasted almost eight years in power, most Japanese leaders have only obtained one kidneys. There are few reasons to think that Ishiba will arrive at a 13th month.

The latest Kyodo News survey shows that the Ishiba firm’s approval rating is 27.6%, a decrease of 12 percentage points compared to February. Since then, voters have realized that Ishiba’s reputation as a politician without scandal has been superimposed. And that the hope that he could limit the collateral damage to Trump’s trade war has been destroyed.

Ishiba could better be silent if he had put notable reform victories on the dashboard. Like its three immediate predecessors – of which Abe – Ishiba is committed to reducing bureaucracy, modernizing labor markets, reviving innovation, increasing productivity and empowering women, but has had negligible success to increase the competitive game of Japan.

This comes back to haunt the LDP as the national elections in July. He also haunts the Bank of Japan, which has tried to normalize the interest rate policy. Since July 2024, Governor Kazuo Ueda has been closest to all peers since 2007 to obtain short -term rates greater than 0.5%.

Now Trump’s trade war forces the UEDA team to press the break button when tightening movements. A concern is that Trump can go ahead with his long -standing temptation to weaken the dollar. If the Boj makes hiking rates when the Trump team acts, the yen could skyrocket unpredictable that pushes Japan into a recession.

This, coming just as China exports deflation and Trump lowers Japan with car taxes, is not in the best interest in the world economy. Or the chances of Ishiba to avoid short -term infamy in the annals of Tokyo policy.