Trump says Israel-Hamas war is over, but path to peace is fragile

US President Donald Trump was in an optimistic mood as he and other world leaders in Egypt on Monday signed the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, seen as a precursor to a possible peace deal between Hamas and Israel.

“It took 3,000 years to get to this point, can you believe it? And it’s going to hold up, too,” Trump said confidently as he signed the deal in front of the world’s media.

“We have achieved what everyone said was impossible: We finally have peace in the Middle East,” Trump later said at a news conference, along with other leaders. “No one thought we could ever get there, and now we are,” he added.

Although most agree that Trump deserves credit for helping to bring an immediate end to the devastating war between Israel and Hamas – which saw the return of Israeli hostages after two years of captivity and the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees – achieving lasting peace is another matter.

“At the end of the day, achieving a ceasefire was very, very important. It was important not just for Gaza and Israel, but for the whole region that has been consumed by this conflict. But it’s also the easy part,” Rob Geist Pinfold, senior lecturer in international security at King’s College London, told CNBC on Tuesday.

“Both sides have shown some willingness to come to the table, discuss and reach some sort of agreement, but the real differences are over what happens ‘the next day,'” Geist Pinfold noted.

Analysts note that Trump’s 20-point peace plan is light on detail, meaning there are a number of gray areas and room for discontent and disagreement in the short and long term.

This is particularly important when it comes to the immediate issues of the peace proposal, such as the demilitarization of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza territory it currently controls, and perhaps the biggest bone of contention: a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians.

Trump declined to speak on the issue during his trip to Israel on Monday, telling reporters on Air Force One, “I’m not talking about one state, or dual state, or two states,” before adding, “A lot of people like the one-state solution, some people like the two-state solution. We’ll have to see.”

While both sides have said “yes” to the ceasefire deal – with few other options given growing international pressure and concern from Trump and his regional partners in the Middle East, as well as the weakening of Hamas-backer Iran – both sides will seek the other to violate and sabotage the deal, experts say.

“Israel’s demand that Hamas be demilitarized and its leaders go into exile… would essentially mean that Hamas, if it accepted it, would be committing institutional suicide,” Geist Pinfold said..

“On the other hand, an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip is something that (Prime Minister) Benjamin Netanyahu has resisted from day one,” he said, adding: “So the stakes are very, very high here.”

The peace plan envisions the creation of a “peace council,” chaired by Trump, to oversee the creation of a transitional authority to administer Gaza and oversee its reconstruction. How this will work in practice is also ambiguous, as is the question of who will keep the peace.

“As for the peacekeepers, we don’t know how many there will be, what countries they will be from when they are deployed, or what their mandate will be. All these questions have been pushed aside,” Geist Pinfold said.

Uriel Abulof, a visiting professor in the Department of Government at Cornell University and a professor of politics at Tel Aviv University, acknowledged that the deal signed at the Egypt peace summit on Monday was not necessarily a “peace deal.”

“It is a survival pact for leaders who thrive on conflict. For two years, Netanyahu and Hamas have used this war to consolidate their power, continuing a long-standing dynamic in which each side’s extremism justifies that of the other,” Abulof said in emailed comments.

“This agreement, imposed by external bosses like the United States and Qatar, is deliberately vague on fundamental issues, allowing both countries to claim a victory,” he added.

Abulof said the two sides shared an “unspoken goal” of preventing a viable Palestinian Authority from governing Gaza. “Therefore, lasting peace is not on the table,” he said.

“The only way forward is through civic renewal, where Israelis and Palestinians replace leaders who view perpetual war as essential to staying in power,” he said.

Feelings of bitterness, distrust and enmity, even outright hatred, run deep on both sides of the simmering conflict and the latest eruption of tensions has left thousands dead and displaced 1.7 million people, according to the United Nations.

Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 saw the terrorist group kill 1,200 people and take hundreds of hostages. Israel’s response and subsequent war left more than 67,000 Palestinians dead, including thousands of civilians, according to Gaza’s health ministry. In the process, Gaza itself has been largely destroyed and most buildings are in ruins.

This pain and loss will not be forgotten, much less forgiven, overnight. At the same time, all peace processes must start somewhere.

Thomas Schwartz, distinguished professor of history and political science at Vanderbilt University, says there is room for cautious optimism.

“I see strong parallels with past breakthroughs in the Middle East, particularly Kissinger’s shuttle diplomacy and Jimmy Carter’s Camp David Accords,” he noted in emailed comments Monday.

“This should also be a reason for caution: in the Middle East, you often have to take two steps forward, then one step back. The road to real peace in the region will be long, but I am sincerely optimistic.”