Almost three years after President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, his troops are progressing regularly on the battlefield. Kyiv is struggling with shortages of men and weapons. And the new American president could soon arrest the massive military aid offer from Ukraine.
Putin is closer than ever to achieve her goals in the country tiring combat, with little incentive to come to the negotiation table, no matter how much the American president Donald Trump could cajolate him or threaten him, according to Russian experts and Westerners questioned by the associates associated press.
Both are signaling discussions on Ukraine – by phone or in person – using flattery and threats.
Putin said Trump was “Intelligent and pragmatic”, “ And even perceived his false claims to have won the 2020 elections. Trump’s opening gambit was to call “intelligent” Putin and threaten Russia with prices and oil drops, which the Kremlin has brush.
Trump boasted during the campaign he could end the war in 24 hours, which later became six months. He said the United States is Speak to Ukraine Russia Without kyiv’s contribution, saying that his administration had already had “very serious” discussions.
He suggested that he and Putin could soon take “significant” measures to put an end to war, in which Russia undergoes heavy victims daily while his economy undergoes Western sanctions, inflation and a serious shortage of hand- of work.
But the economy has not collapsed, and because Putin triggered the hardest repression against dissent since Soviet times, it does no domestic pressure to end the war.
“In the West, the idea came from somewhere that it is important from Putin to achieve an agreement and put an end to things. This is not the case, “said Fyodor Lukyanov, who organized a forum with Putin in November and heads the Moscow Council for foreign and defense policies.
Interviews on Ukraine without Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Putin wants Trump directly, cutting Kyiv. This goes against the position of the Biden administration which echoed the call of Zelenskyy of “Nothing on Ukraine without Ukraine”.
“We cannot let someone decide something for us”, Zelenskyy told APSaying that Russia wants “destruction of Ukrainian freedom and independence”.
He suggested that such a peace agreement would send the dangerous signal that adventurism pays to authoritarian leaders in China, North Korea and Iran.
Putin seems to expect Trump to undermine European resolution on Ukraine. Admiring the leaders of Europe to Trump’s lapdogs, he said on Sunday that they would soon be “seated obedience to the feet of their master and gently going up the tail” while the American president quickly brought order with his “character and perseverance ”.
Trump boasts of his prowess of the agreement, but Putin will not easily give up what he considers that the ancestral lands of Russia in Ukraine or waste a chance to punish the West and undermine his alliances and his security in forcing kyiv to a policy of neutrality.
Trump may want a heritage as a peacemaker, but “history will not look like him if he is the man who gives all of this,” British ambassador in the United States of 2016-2019 said. Former NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu said that an agreement promoting Moscow would send a message of “American weakness”.
Echoes of Helsinki
Trump and Putin met Helsinki in 2018 for the last time when there was a “mutual respect” between them, said former Finnish president Sali Niinistö, the host of the summit. But they are “not very similar”, he added, with Putin a “systematic” thinker while Trump acts as a businessman making “rapid” decisions.
This could cause a confrontation because Trump wants a rapid resolution in war while Putin is looking for a slower that strengthens her military position and weakens kyiv and the political will of the West.
Zelenskyy told AP that Putin “did not want to negotiate. He will sabot it. Indeed, Putin has already raised obstacles, including legal obstacles and said that Zelenskyy had lost his legitimacy as president.
Putin hopes Trump “will be bored” or distracted with another problem, said Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat in Geneva who left his post after the invasion.
Russian experts highlight Trump’s first mandate when they said Putin had realized that such meetings do not reach little.
One was a public relations victory for Moscow in Helsinki where Trump rose to the side of Putin Instead of its own intelligence agencies on the question of whether Russia got involved in the 2016 elections. Another was in Singapore in 2018 with the North Korean leader Kim Jong one when he failed to reach an agreement To stop the Pyongyang nuclear program.
Previous peace talks
The Kremlin said last year A project of peace agreementThe fact that Russia and Ukraine negotiated in Istanbul at the start of the conflict – but that Kyiv rejected – could be the basis of talks.
He demanded the neutrality of Ukraine, stipulated from NATO to refuse computer membership, has set limits for the kyiv armed forces and delayed the talks on the status of four regions occupied by Russia that Moscow then annexed illegally. Moscow also rejected requirement to withdraw your troopsPour compensation to Ukraine and cope with an international tribunal for its action.
Putin did not indicate that he was moving but said: “If there is a desire to negotiate and find a compromise solution, let anyone perform these negotiations.”
“Commitment is not the same as negotiation,” said Sir Laurie Bristow, British ambassador to Russia from 2016 to 2010, describing Russia’s strategy as “what is mine. And what you are in negotiation. »»
Bondarev also said that Putin only considers negotiations as a vehicle “to deliver what he wants” to him “, adding that it is” surprising “that Western leaders still do not understand the tactics of the Kremlin.
This means that Putin is likely to welcome any meeting with Trump, because she promotes Russia as a world force and plays well at the national level, but he will not offer little in return.
What Trump can and cannot do
Trump said Zelenskyy should have concluded an agreement with Putin to avoid war, adding that he would not have enabled the conflict to start if he had been in office.
Trump threatened Russia with more prices, sanctions and oil drops, but there is no economic “Wonder Wear” that can end the war, said Richard Connolly, a military expert and Russian economic at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
And the Kremlin repels threats, probably because the West has already strongly sanctioned Russia.
Trump cannot guarantee that Ukraine would never join NATO, and he cannot raise all Western sanctions, easily force Europe to regain the importation of Russian energy or ask the criminal court international to cancel his arrest warrant against war crimes for Putin.
Speaking toWorld Economic Forum of Davos Trump said he wanted himOPEC +Alliance and Saudi Arabia to reduce oil prices to push Putin to end war. The Kremlin said it will not work because the war concerns Russian security, not the price of oil. This would also harm oil producers.
“In the compromise between Putin and domestic oil producers, I am sure of what Trump choice will make,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, member of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.
Trump could put pressure on Russia by supporting the American petroleum industry with subsidies and lifting the 10% commercial prices imposed on China in exchange for Beijing limiting economic ties with Moscow, which could leave it “really isolated” said Connolly.
Europe could also underline its commitment to kyiv – and Curry is the favor of Trump – by buying US military equipment to give to Ukraine, said Lord Peter Ricketts, a former British national security advisor.
Lukyanov suggested that Trump’s allies often seem afraid of him and collapsed under his threats.
The “big question,” he said, is what will happen when Putin is not.
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This story has been updated to correct that the summit with North Korea in Singapore was in 2018, not 2019.
