Trump pumps coal to meet AI energy needs, but any increase could be short-lived

CHEYENNE, Wyo. (AP) — President Donald Trump’s promise to leave all bet on fossil fuels He particularly praises coal, a reliable but polluting energy source that has been in decline for a long time.

Trump suggested this week that coal could help meet growing electricity demand from manufacturing and the massive data centers needed for artificial intelligence.

“Nothing can destroy coal. Not the weather, not a bomb, nothing. » Trump told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, via video link on Thursday. “And we have more coal than anyone.”

Still, energy experts say any increase in coal under Trump will likely be temporary since natural gas is cheaper and there is a sustainable market for renewable energy regardless of who is in the White House.

“It’s been demonstrated over the last three administrations, even the president of the United States can’t change the markets, the trend of coal,” said Rob Godby, an economics professor at the University of Wyoming. “This could lead to a reprieve.”

Here’s a look at the outlook for coal during Trump’s second term:

AI WILL NEED MORE ELECTRICITY

Efficiency gains have stagnated U.S. electricity demand for 15 years, but that is changing. The increase in the number of manufacturing industries, the increase in the number of electric vehicles and the energy-intensive computing centers needed for artificial intelligence are poised to put a strain on the system.

Electricity demand for data centers alone will increase 10% to 20% annually through 2030, while manufacturing batteries, solar cells and semiconductors will require additional gigawatts of new energy over the next four years. years, predicted Chris Seiple of the analyst firm Wood Mackenzie.

While the tech industry is accustomed to producing new products to meet changing demands, electric utilities are not. Power plants and transmission lines often require decades of planning.

“The Trump administration is a four-year administration. It’s really difficult for utilities to make investment decisions over four-year periods,” Godby said.

A REPAIR FOR SOME OLD COAL POWER PLANTS

Trump issued executive orders this week calling for prioritizing energy development, such as lifting regulations that hinder fossil fuel development.

This could lead to repeals President Joe Biden’s regulations on power plant pollution and the end of some policies supporting renewable energy.

Environmentalists cringe at the implications of climate change — electricity generation accounts for a quarter of U.S. carbon emissions, according to the EPA — but miners welcome the change.

Unlike solar and wind power, which are subject to the vagaries of the sun and weather unless combined with battery storage, coal-fired electricity can operate 24 hours a day with only downtime. periodic shutdown for maintenance. Supporters say continuous coal power meets the needs of technology facilities.

But while tech companies that want to get off-grid electricity could invest in a “cheap” coal-fired power plant, Godby said, such plants need time to get going. They are not very suitable for the type of on-site backup power that Trump was referring to during his speech at the Davos conference.

The increase in demand is expected to cause delays in plans to close coal-fired power plants. This has already happened at plants in Maryland, Indiana and Illinois.

For utilities, Trump’s comments were “a blank check to do whatever you want” in the short term despite previous attempts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and expand renewable energy, said Dan Thompson, an analyst of S&P Global.

But Thompson noted that three of the companies driving the data center boom – Google, Amazon and Microsoft – are the biggest buyers of renewable energy and have committed to going carbon neutral.

This suggests a reprieve, not a return, for coal.

“Natural gas will benefit the most from increased electricity production,” Seiple said. “It is very unlikely that we will see new coal-fired power plants due to their high cost. »

COULD TRUMP EXPLOIT PUBLIC COAL RESERVES?

The United States has some of the largest coal reserves in the world – enough to last more than 400 years at the current rate of mining, according to the Energy Information Administration.

The industry relies heavily on reservations located on public lands in the West, particularly the Powder River Basin in Wyoming and Montana.

Sales of these reserves have long been a subject of political controversy. Trump during his first term canceled a moratorium on government coal sales imposed under former President Barack Obama.

The Biden administration has also sought to ban new coal sales in the closing days of his administration. The move is expected to result in mines exhausting their federal coal reserves as early as 2035, decades earlier than if leasing continued.

When Sen. Jon Barrasso asked Doug Burgum, Trump’s interior secretary nominee, about the ban during his confirmation hearing, Burgum responded that he would “absolutely” work with the Wyoming Republican to overturn the ban.

Burgum also pledged to work with Montana Republican Sen. Steve Daines to advance pending coal mine expansion permits in the lawmaker’s state.

“We lack electricity and especially base load. We know we have the technology to deliver clean coal,” Burgum said. He referenced efforts at a coal-to-gas plant in North Dakota — where he was governor — to capture and sequester carbon dioxide that would otherwise warm the planet.

Research has shown that carbon capture is feasible and useful for boosting production in aging oil fields. Scientists have questioned the practical utility of commercial-scale production, permanent sequestration of carbon dioxide from the combustion of coal and other fossil fuels.

US COAL EXPORTS INCREASE

Global coal production is expected to hit a record high last year, approaching 10 billion tonnes (9 billion tonnes), according to the International Energy Agency.

The biggest demand is in Asia, where countries including China continue to build new coal-fired power plants as their economies grow.

American coal companies have sought to capitalize on this growth by exporting more coal. They were hampered by the lack of access to West Coast ports.

To circumvent opposition to new ports, Republicans during Trump’s first term considered, but never implemented, a plan to use military bases on the west coast or other federal properties as fossil fuel export sites.

U.S. exports last year are expected to exceed 100 million tons for the second year in a row. Top destinations included India, China, Brazil, Japan and the Netherlands.

“There is a strong global appetite for coal and U.S. producers are poised to meet that need,” said Rich Nolan, president of the National Mining Association.

Overall U.S. coal production is expected to continue to decline.

“It’s hard to break out of the long-term trend,” Godby said.

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