President-elect Donald Trump pledged to negotiate a deal peace agreement in Ukrainebut as he prepares to take office, peace seems more elusive than ever.
Moscow and kyiv are seeking battlefield gains to strengthen their bargaining positions ahead of any possible negotiations to end the three-year-old war.
Over the past year, Russian troops have advanced slowly but surely through Ukraine’s defenses, seeking to establish full control of the four eastern and southern regions that Moscow illegally annexed at the start of the war but never completely captured. It is also launching waves of missiles and drones to try to cripple Ukraine’s energy grid and other vital infrastructure.
Ukraine, in turn, attempted to secure and expand its incursion into Russian territory. Kursk region. kyiv’s missiles and drones have also struck Russian oil facilities and other key targets important to Moscow’s war machine.
Both sides have adopted tough negotiating positions that leave little room for compromise.
Trump, who promised during his campaign to resolve the war in 24 hours, changed that deadline earlier this month, expressing hope that peace could be negotiated in six months. His candidate for the post of envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kelloggsays a deal could be negotiated in 100 days.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow was ready to begin negotiations, but stressed that any peace deal would have to respect “realities on the ground,” a not-so-subtle way of saying it must take into account Russia’s land gains.
He stressed in June that Ukraine must also renounce its NATO candidacy and completely withdraw its forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – the regions annexed by Russia in September 2022 – demands that Ukraine and the West have rejected. Moscow also wants the West to lift sanctions that have limited its access to global markets and dealt a blow to the Russian economy.
Massive military spending has supported Russia’s economic output, which rose nearly 4% last year, but a weakening ruble and labor shortages have fueled high inflation and increasingly destabilized the economy. Last week, President Joe Biden added to Moscow’s pain by extend sanctions on Russia’s vital energy sector, including ghost sea fleet used to circumvent previous restrictions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky The initial “peace formula” demanded Russia’s full withdrawal from all occupied territories, but he later softened his stance as Moscow continued to advance, and he no longer makes that withdrawal a condition of talks. Zelensky has faced reluctance among some allies to offer kyiv early NATO membership, but he insists on strong security guarantees from the United States and other Western partners as a key part of any possible peace agreement.
Zelensky stressed the need for a comprehensive agreement, not a temporary cessation of hostilities that would simply allow Russia to replenish its arsenal. He pushed for the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine as peacekeepers.
Putin also rejected a temporary truce, emphasizing that Russian troops are launching an offensive and any interruption in fighting would allow Ukraine to obtain reinforcements and supplies.
“The Russians see that Trump is going to push for some sort of resolution or some sort of settlement, and they want to grab whatever they can,” said Kurt Volker, who served as special representative for Ukraine for Trump’s first term.
Russia controls about a fifth of Ukraine’s territory, including the Crimean peninsula that was illegally annexed in 2014. It has held the battlefield initiative for most of 2024, launching offensives in several sections of the front line of more than 1,000 kilometers (600 miles). Moscow’s gains in the fall were the largest since the invasion began.
Ukraine faces a severe labor shortage as it struggles to mobilize enough recruits to make up for its losses and increased troop numbers. desertions.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, observed that “stabilizing the front line is essential to buy time and force Moscow to reassess.” He noted that Ukraine’s mobilization rates have declined significantly since the summer and “trooping levels have continued to decline, particularly among infantry units manning the front lines.”
Moscow-based military analyst Sergei Poletaev noted that although Russia lacks the resources to achieve a major breakthrough, it has refined the tactics of slow, small-scale advances in multiple sectors.
“Moscow is betting on the physical exhaustion of the Ukrainian armed forces and the collapse of the Ukrainian state,” Poletaev recently wrote.
Kyiv sought to turn the situation around by launching an incursion into Russian territory. Kursk region in August, with the aim of distracting Moscow’s forces in eastern Ukraine and strengthening its negotiating position. Russia, initially surprised, intensified its efforts to drive out Ukrainian forces. The United States, Ukraine and South Korea said North Korea sent between 10,000 and 12,000 troops to Russia to fight in the Kursk region.
Kellogg, the new administration’s designated envoy for Ukraine, dismissed European fears that Trump might reduce his support for kyiv, saying “he’s not trying to give something to Putin or the Russians, he’s is actually trying to save Ukraine and safeguard their sovereignty.”
Volker predicted that Trump would urge Putin to end hostilities and warn that he would significantly increase pressure on Moscow if the Russian leader did not heed his request.
If Putin refuses to stop the fighting, Volker said Trump would “turn on the tap” and allow Ukraine to borrow as much money as it wants and buy all the military equipment it wants , while toughening sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector.
“I think these things would be intended to get Putin to conclude, ‘OK, it’s time to stop,’” Volker said.
Other observers warn that Putin is unlikely to compromise on his war goals, particularly with Russian troops having the upper hand in Ukraine and the Russian economy having so far survived Western sanctions in course.
While seeking to consolidate his gains and obtain Western guarantees that Ukraine will never be invited to join NATO, Putin also wants kyiv to accept a set of linguistic, educational and cultural policies to guarantee his friendly policy towards Moscow.
“Putin has linked his war to this goal and is unlikely to back down,” Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center wrote in a commentary. “Instead, he will probably step up his efforts. »
She added that Russia’s demand for “demilitarization” of Ukraine not only involves deep reductions in its armed forces, but it also asks the West to guarantee that it will not rearma its ally.
“Moscow views any military support for Ukraine as inherently hostile,” she said.
Putin is unlikely to reverse his annexation of Ukraine’s four regions, a seizure already enshrined in the Russian constitution.
“Moscow believes that a recognition of Russia’s new borders by Ukraine is necessary to prevent any basis for military revenge,” political analyst Vladimir Frolov said in a commentary.
Many Moscow analysts are skeptical about the prospects for a peace deal, noting the two sides’ sharply divergent positions. Some say a breakdown in negotiations could put Russia and the United States on the brink of direct conflict if Trump decides to step up military support for Ukraine.
“They tend to think in the West that Putin will be afraid and agree to a ceasefire,” wrote Poletaev, the Moscow-based analyst. “It’s quite the opposite. Putin will probably opt for escalation and fight fire with fire.”
Associated Press writer Danica Kirka in London contributed.
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