Tropical Storm Ernesto expected to hit Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands before strengthening into a hurricane

Tropical Storm Ernesto was en route to the Virgin Islands on Tuesday afternoon, gaining strength as it swirled in the Atlantic Ocean just days after Debbie Ernesto has completed its journey along the U.S. East Coast. It is expected to make landfall near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday night and strengthen into a hurricane as it passes northeast of Puerto Rico later that night, the National Hurricane Center said.

As of 5 p.m. Eastern time, forecasters said Ernesto was packing sustained winds of 60 mph (96 kph) and moving at 18 mph (29 kph). It was expected to be near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands by Tuesday night and pass northeast and north of Puerto Rico Tuesday and Wednesday.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as Vieques and Culebra. A tropical storm warning is in effect for St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat and Anguilla, as well as St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Sint Maarten, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra.

Forecasters predict the storm will strengthen into a hurricane by late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

CBS News senior weather producer David Parkinson said “rain will play a much bigger role than wind” when it comes to Ernesto.

The storm is expected to bring 4 to 6 inches of rain to the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands, and 3 to 6 inches, with a maximum of 10 inches, to Puerto Rico. Storm surge levels could reach 3 feet and cause “significant and destructive waves.” The Leeward Islands could also experience “significant flash flooding and landslides,” the National Hurricane Center said.

“Some models suggest a storm foot is possible given the topography, so higher totals can’t be ruled out,” Parkinson said. “… The U.S. remains outside the direct impact zone, but rip currents and larger waves will be a concern along the East Coast.”

Ernesto is the fifth named storm so far in the Atlantic hurricane season, which has already proven to be historic after Beryl reaches record strength As the season begins, Gulf of Mexico temperatures are above average. NOAA has predicted an above-normal season, with 17 to 25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes.

According to NOAA, the fifth named storm typically doesn’t occur until August 22.