Trevor Lawrence’s struggles with Jaguars are proof that Caleb Williams’ NFL success isn’t a guarantee with Bears

Trevor Lawrence was supposed to become the next great quarterback in the NFL.

Four years later, the Jacksonville Jaguars trail the Houston Texans in the AFC South, while Lawrence is 20-30 as a starter and has just one playoff victory.

In 2024, Caleb Williams is expected to become the next great NFL QB and has already drawn comparisons to Patrick Mahomes.

There’s still time for Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in 2021, to live up to his one-of-a-kind college hype, which has had fans of some NFL teams waiting years just for the former Clemson star to enter the draft.

But according to ESPN analyst Matt Miller, Lawrence’s early career in Jacksonville is a clear reminder that “situation” is critical to a young QB’s development.

Lawrence’s struggles are also proof that nothing is guaranteed in the NFL and that even top college prospects can run into unexpected obstacles.

“Situation matters,” Miller told talkSPORT exclusively. “You get drafted and Urban Meyer is your first head coach and he gets fired nine weeks later. The situation matters so much.”

Tom Brady and Mahomes’ Super Bowl success has created unrealistic expectations for some NFL teams, general managers, coaches and fans.

This also factors into the current opinion of Lawrence, who has been good in the NFL but hasn’t been as good while battling inconsistency, injuries, coaching and personnel changes.

“We talk about Trevor Lawrence, who’s been in the NFL for four years, and we’re like, ‘Well, he hasn’t lived up to his expectations,'” Miller said. “The Jags were in the playoffs two years ago and had a good run in the playoffs.”

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Lawrence was even more excited about college than Williams.

The Jaguars’ current QB was nearly unbeatable at Clemson, going 38-2.

The Tigers won the first 29 games of Lawrence’s college career, including a national championship.

Its only losses came in the 2020 College Football Playoff National Championship against LSU and the 2021 CFP Semifinals against Ohio State.

Williams first made a name for himself in college during Oklahoma’s greatest rivalry against Texas, coming off the bench to complete 16 of 25 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns in a classic snap victory. 55-48 for the Sooners.

When Sooners coach Lincoln Riley jumped ship to become a Trojan, Williams followed Riley to USC and became the biggest name in college football during the 2022 season.

Williams completed 66.6 percent of his passes for 4,537 yards, 42 touchdowns and just five interceptions, winning the Heisman Trophy and becoming a lock as the No. 1 pick whenever he decided to enter the draft.

He fell in some categories in 2023 and only managed 30 touchdowns.

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But Williams also set personal highs in completion percentage (68.6), yards per attempt (9.4) and passer rating (170.1).

The Bears are so confident in their expected No. 1 pick that they traded away former quarterback Justin Fields, who was drafted in the first round in 2021, 10 picks behind Lawrence.

“Chicago has done a great job of building a framework around him (Williams), which is incredibly important,” Miller said. “I would say there’s a 90 percent chance he’ll be a Pro Bowl quarterback and lead Chicago to a sustained run of contenders. But I wouldn’t want to say, ‘Hey, here’s the next Patrick Mahomes just waiting for the Bears to arrive.’ select it, because there are too many risk factors.

At Clemson, Lawrence couldn’t have predicted that Meyer would take over the Jaguars, then abruptly leave after a disastrous 2-11 record.

The Jaguars can still get the most out of Lawrence, who completed 63.8 percent of his passes for 11,770 yards, 39 touchdowns and an 85 rating, but also threw 39 interceptions.

The Bears can learn several key lessons by studying what worked for Lawrence in Jacksonville and what clearly hindered the development of the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL in 2021.

“Every player has a chance that it doesn’t work out, every player,” Miller said. “I’ve been doing this a long time and we’ve seen guys, like Trevor Lawrence, who couldn’t miss. We’ve seen Andrew Luck, who because of injuries ended his career.

“There’s always that risk, which is why the draft is so fascinating, because it can feel like a lock: This player is going to change the team for the better. But you never really know.”