Transnistria suffers from the hard love of Russia

The crisis of the small region of the Transnistria, which has made daily life miserable for those that the Kremlin claims to protect, should be an object lesson in Putin realpolitik. When Russia directs things, your country or your region becomes a geopolitical toy where your interests will always be in second position. At best.

Thus, around 350,000 transnists tremble in the dark for long periods at the height of winter because the Kremlin has cut its free energy supply. It was not a forced decision, it was a choice.

For what? Because Russia hopes that misery inflicted on Moldova (to which the Transnistria belongs and to which it is intimately linked) will increase poverty and misery and cause voters to blame its pro-Western government. These autumn legislative elections will give them the opportunity to decide who blame their suffering.

Russia has provided gas for many years to the transnderer region, for no payment, where it is used to generate energy for Moldova consumption, at a price. But since Moscow disabled the taps to the new year, the roles were reversed. Moldova buys supplies on the markets, in particular neighboring Romania, while the Transistriserian region is struggling to stay warm.

There is a cost for all this. Moldova must pay more for alternative supplies. And this is really the point (Russia’s claims on unpaid debt are widely surfed.) On January 10, electricity prices increased by around 70%. This has increased the economic burden of the population where prices increase is the main concern. It disproportionately affects low -income households. While the government has implemented a remuneration system, around 30% of the population lives in poverty.

Gas off is not the first time that Russia has been trying to sail on Moldova and its inhabitants (in 2022, Moscow reduced gases in Moldova by more than half), but it may be be the last. Moldova formerly depended on the gas supplied by Russia, but learned of its lesson and largely declined from the energy supplies of the Kremlin. Whatever the current crisis, the Moldova contract with Gazprom expired in September 2026 and if the pro-European parties remain in power, they will probably terminate the agreement.

Moldova is now based strongly on daily imports of electricity from Romania, supplemented by a limited local generation and an increasing contribution from renewable energy sources (10% to 15%) This change has contributed to avoid A crisis.

The situation is much worse in Transnistria. Without gas supply, the MGRES power plant has passed to coal, which should last for the next few days. To maintain resources, public institutions have been disconnected from heating systems, power outages have been implemented, public services, including transport and hospitals, operate in reduced mode, and schools have extended a vacation . Imports in the region have decreased by 43% and exports dropped by 60% because production has been stopped or reduced.

Transndistrian leader Vadim Krasnosky has announced Russia’s intention to provide sufficient humanitarian gas for the consumption of the region. So far, nothing has resulted and a reluctance transnis has now accepted an offer of aid from the European Union (EU) which includes 31 million dollars for Moldova and Transnistria for the period from February 1 to 10 , and a loan of 3 million cubic meters of gas provided for in the Transnistria by the Moldovan authorities.

EU support will be used to buy gas for the transnderer region, including Mgres, and in exchange Mgres will provide free electricity to Moldova – resulting in prices. This short -term solution will fill the gap of the Transnistria, but a long -term sustainable solution must still be presented.

The crisis only highlights the unsustainable nature of the transnis economy, which depends on free Russian gas and therefore on the goodwill of the Kremlin.

The inability to help the Transnistria of its waste induced by Putin has other implications. If the energy crisis has worsened, there could be an influx of transmits to Moldova, creating a humanitarian crisis. More than 90% of the residents of the Transnistria are Moldovan citizens. This would stretch the country’s resources.

Russia’s energy blackmail is part of its broader geopolitical strategy to destabilize Moldova and influence both its national and foreign policy. Since he launched his war on a large scale in Ukraine, Moscow has intensified the hybrid war against Moldova through his FSB espionage agency and including several million dollars disinformation campaigns, interference in the elections Presidential and attempts to compromise the EU referendum.

It seems likely that pro-Russian candidates will take advantage of the crisis by promising lower energy costs if they were elected, exploiting the economic vulnerabilities of voters while seeking to encourage Transnisterran voters to use their votes in the Moldavan voting bulletin .

It is crucial for Moldova to prioritize the diversification of energy, improve security and promote regional cooperation. At the same time, the crisis offers Moldova the opportunity to crop its relationship with the Transnistria, preparing for future reintegration in a strategic and lasting way, including a vision of the energy policy that includes the Transistria and minimizes the influence of Russia.

Anastasia Pociumban is a researcher at the German Council for Foreign Relations (DGAP), where she directs the Reflection network on the oriental partnership. His work focuses on the enlargement of the EU and EU relations with its eastern neighbors. She is a former toothbade scholarship holder with the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA.)

Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online newspaper covering critical subjects on the foreign policy file through Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.