Forecast as of Saturday, January 4, 2025 @ 630AM
Good morning and happy Saturday! The big story, of course, is the winter storm heading our way. Snow and ice are possible along with bitterly cold temperatures for next week.
Storm Mode Index
Confidence is increasing for the potential for an impactful winter storm over the weekend and into early next week. There will be major impacts to travel on Sunday and Monday. This system will begin sometime late Saturday, after sunset, and continue through Sunday night. The First Alert Weather Team will be in a Storm Mode Index of 4 (0 to 5 scale) as we expect a significant winter storm creating hazardous travel.
Saturday’s forecast
Saturday will be quiet until sunset with a mostly cloudy sky and highs near 30°.
Winter storm warning across mid-Missouri
A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for all of mid-Missouri, starting late Saturday and lasting into early Monday.
Timing, snow and ice totals
Timing is becoming more clear with this system. Trends are pointing to a wintry mix starting on Saturday around sunset. There will eventually be a transition to all snow. This will happen at different times across the region with an earlier transition north of I-70 and a later transition, meaning more ice and sleet, for areas south of I-70. Sunday will end with snow showers, which could be heavy at times. This system will be done Monday morning.
There will be travel impacts on Sunday and Monday. There will be plowable snow along with the potential for ice accumulation. Along with falling snow, winds could gust upwards of 35 mph reducing visibility and causing blizzard like conditions.
We are just now getting the first readings of this storm from weather balloons as it moves on to land. Stay tuned for changing information as the smallest change in track or temperature in any part of the atmosphere could lead to large changes in totals for both snow and ice.
In general, areas north of I-70 will see the highest snow totals with 5-10” possible. A band of heavier amounts, ranging from 8-14″ is possible along and north of highway 36. Between I-70 and Highway 50 has the potential for 4-8″ of snow and south of Highway 50 will receive between 1-4.”
Snow accumulation will happen on top of any ice that accumulates. A glazing of ice is possible south of Highway 24. Higher ice amounts will be south of I-50 with the highest totals south of I-44 where well over a quarter inch is possible. There could be potential issues with power outages near the lake due to ice.
There are still limiting factors that could change this forecast. We will watch for dry air at the start of the storm and the storm track very carefully over the next few days.
Limiting factors could include dry air, shift in storm track and the timing of sleet. The longer we get sleet, the more we will cut into snowfall totals.
Bitter blast on the way
Once the winter storm is over, bitter cold sets in. This means any accumulation that happens is not going to melt for a while. Temperatures will range from single digits overnight to highs in the teens through midweek. Morning wind chills will likely be below 0°.