Top NFL Divisional Round storylines: Chiefs resume Super Bowl quest; huge stakes in Ravens-Bills

The Athletic covers live Texans vs. Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round playoffs.

One of the best weekends of the NFL playoffs is here. After a wild card round that largely turned into an explosive affair, the divisional round features more compelling matchups.

Action begins Saturday with the Houston Texans visiting the Kansas City Chiefs, followed by the Washington Commanders visiting the Detroit Lions. On Sunday, the Los Angeles Rams face the Philadelphia Eagles, then a grand final in Buffalo between the Bills and the Baltimore Ravens and two MVP candidates among quarterbacks Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.

Here are the main scenarios to follow this round.

Pressure on Mahomes and the Chiefs

AFC No. 4 Houston Texans vs. No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

After obtaining a bye in the wild-card round, the Chiefs (15-2) resume their quest for an unprecedented third consecutive Lombardi Trophy. They host the Texans, who crushed the Los Angeles Chargers 32-12 to advance to the divisional round.

Some fans and analysts are criticizing the Chiefs this year because they haven’t delivered the prolific offensive performances we’ve come to expect from them. What they delivered, however, was an impressive run of milestone performances: wins in 16 straight games decided by a single score. Injuries at wide receiver diminished Kansas City’s firepower this season, but Andy Reid and his charges continued to thrive. The recipe for success for this iteration of the Chiefs: leaning heavily on a towering defense that kept the Chiefs in games, putting the ball in Patrick Mahomes’ hands late and letting the All-World quarterback deliver his signature heroics.

The Chiefs and Texans just faced off in Week 16. Kansas City won 27-19 after forcing CJ Stroud to throw two interceptions in the first half. Mahomes, meanwhile, scored a touchdown and rushed for another. Can the Texans get a different result on Saturday?

Ball security is key, as is Houston’s ability to disrupt Mahomes. Houston’s defense would like to continue its momentum from last week’s win over Los Angeles. The Texans sacked Justin Herbert four times, recorded nine quarterback hits and forced him to throw four interceptions. Leading the way: Edge Rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Offensive tackle has been one of the Chiefs’ weakest positions. Three players have played the left tackle position, and a fourth — DJ Humphries, signed in late November — could get the nod Saturday against converted guard Joe Thuney.

This season, Mahomes has been sacked a career-high 36 times, and through 13 weeks, opponents have sacked him an average of 2.69 times per game. Kansas City’s line finished the season on a stronger note, as Mahomes was only sacked once in his last three games. Mahomes is excellent under pressure, however. Facing five or more passers, his passer rating increases from 109.0 to 116.5. He also threw 23 touchdowns and just one interception against the blitz.

Aggressive Lion Commanders and Awakenings

NFC No. 6 Washington Commanders vs. No. 1 Detroit Lions
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

For decades, Washington and Detroit football fans have suffered through dreadful seasons, continual coaching carousels, organizational dysfunction and on-field mistakes that made their teams the laughingstocks of the NFL.

In 2021, however, Dan Campbell took the reins of the Lions, changed the culture, instilled a winning mindset and is now coaching a heavily favored team to reach the Super Bowl. Dan Quinn took over in Washington this season. Similar to Campbell, Quinn brought a new approach to the long-suffering franchise, making his Commanders one of this season’s most surprising success stories.

These teams meet Saturday night in Motor City. The Lions resume their quest for the franchise’s first trip to the Super Bowl after last week’s bye, and the Commanders try to keep the magic alive a week after upsetting Tampa Bay 23-20 in a thrilling wild-card win .

Look for Lions and Commanders to light up the scoreboard. The Lions entered the playoffs averaging an NFL-high 33.2 points per game. The Commanders placed fifth, averaging 28.5 points per contest. Jared Goff leads the way for the Lions, ranking second in the NFL in the regular season with 4,629 passing yards, 37 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Commanders rookie Jayden Daniels was electric passing for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. He also totaled 891 yards and six touchdowns.

The similarities don’t end there. Campbell and Quinn are among the most aggressive coaches in the league because of their willingness to go for it on fourth down, even if they have the ball in their own territory. Washington completed 87 percent of its fourth-down attempts in the regular season, leading the NFL. Detroit converted 66.7 percent of its fourth downs, tied for seventh.

The Commanders converted three of five fourth-down attempts last week against the Bucs and didn’t punt once.

An aggressive approach on fourth down proved costly for the Lions in last season’s NFC Championship Game against San Francisco. Detroit only converted one of three attempts, and both missed attempts were within field goal range. The Lions lost 34-31. Campbell said afterward he had no regrets and has remained just as aggressive this season.

Campbell’s Lions are favored by 9.5 points and the experience could serve Goff and his teammates well. Considering how Daniels performed in the biggest moments of the season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him keep the Commanders within reach.

And if the game is in the balance late, expect both head coaches to pull out all the stops.

Will the real Rams please stand up?

No. 4 LA Rams NFC vs. No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET

The Rams are trying to build on their momentum from last week’s commanding 27-9 victory over the Minnesota Vikings in Philadelphia, where the Eagles beat the Green Bay Packers 22-10 in the wild-card round.

This is the second meeting of the season between the Rams and the Eagles. The last time they met, in Week 12, the Eagles rolled to a dominant 37-20 victory and Saquon Barkley gashed the Rams for a franchise-record 255 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries. Wide receiver AJ Brown added 109 receiving yards and a touchdown on six receptions. Meanwhile, the Eagles defense rattled Matthew Stafford, sacking him five times, recording 11 quarterback hits and denying the Rams on their eight third-down attempts.

If the Eagles can deliver a similarly complete performance on Sunday, a spot in the NFC Championship Game is as good as theirs. But the bigger question is which Rams team will show up on Sunday.

Los Angeles’ defense has improved as the season has gone on. Since that loss to Barkley and the Eagles, the Rams have allowed an average of just 104.1 rushing yards and 17 points in the six regular season games and one playoff game that followed. Young players like Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, Byron Young and Braden Fiske seem to have grown into their roles. The Rams forced Sam Darnold into his worst performance of the season last week.

But Jalen Hurts doesn’t shake that easily. Hurts is less prolific this season, going from 3,858 yards and 23 touchdowns to 2,903 yards and 18 touchdowns, but he has reduced his interceptions (from 15 to five). He’s also more efficient, posting a career-best completion percentage (68.7) and passer rating (103.7).

Despite having five sacks in Week 12 against the Eagles, Stafford threw two touchdown passes and no interceptions. His team, however, needs a better performance from him on third down. LA struggled in this area, converting just 36.8 percent on first downs during the regular season.

Jackson and Allen MVP showdown

AFC No. 3 Baltimore Ravens vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

Throughout the season, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen engaged in a tug of war for MVP honors.

While leading the league’s top-ranked offense, Jackson had one of the best quarterback seasons in NFL history, with 4,172 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, just four interceptions and a league-leading passer rating of 119.6. He also had 915 rushing yards and four touchdowns, becoming the first quarterback in league history to surpass 4,000 passing yards and 900 rushing yards in the same season.

Allen, meanwhile, passed for 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns (six interceptions), with 531 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. He led Buffalo to second place in the AFC despite the offseason trade of perennial 1,000-yard receiver Stefon Diggs to the Texans.

While a matchup between two leading MVP candidates makes for great theater, the league’s highest individual honor isn’t what motivates either quarterback. Advancing to the AFC Championship Game and competing for his first Super Bowl.

The Ravens hope Sunday’s game plays out like the regular season game against Buffalo. Baltimore earned a 35-10 home victory in Week 4 thanks to two passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown from Jackson, plus 199 rushing yards and a touchdown from Derrick Henry. Allen and the Bills struggled against Baltimore’s defense, outgaining 427-236 in total yards and converting just three of 13 third downs. Buffalo rebounded to win 10 of its next 13 games to secure the AFC’s second seed (with the top seed already secured, Allen played only one snap in a Week 18 loss against the Patriots).

On Sunday, Baltimore could once again be without top receiver Zay Flowers, who continues to nurse a sprained knee. Without Flowers last week, the Ravens relied heavily on Henry (26 carries for 186 yards and two touchdowns) and five pass receivers made multiple receptions. Can Jackson’s depth of support overwhelm a Bills defense ranked 17th overall (341.5 yards per game), 12th against the run (115.5) and 24th against the pass (226.1)?

Or will home-field advantage boost Allen and a Bills team seeking their first appearance in an AFC Championship Game since the 2020 season?

(Top photo of Patrick Mahomes: Jamie Squire/Getty Images)