The Denver Nuggets host the Minnesota Timberwolves for Game 2 of their Western Conference Semifinals series Monday night.
On Saturday, the T-Wolves hit the road and picked up a huge Game 1 win against the Nuggets.
Can the defending champions bounce back with a Game 2 win? Or will Minnesota continue to put the league on notice, securing a 2-0 series lead on the road?
Let’s dive into the match and make a choice.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets odds
| Team | Spread | Money line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| T-Wolves | +5.5 (-108) | +198 | o207.5 (-108) |
| Nuggets | -5.5 (-112) | -240 | u207.5 (-112) |
Timberwolves analysis
Anthony Edwards was supernatural Saturday night. He finished with a staggering 43 points on 17-of-29 shooting, seven rebounds, three assists, two blocks and a steal.
Averaging 33.4 points per game in the playoffs on elite shooting of 53-43-86, Edwards is a phenom rising into rarefied air in his second trip to the postseason.
I expect the Nuggets to double-team and trap Edwards more in Game 2, as they had no answer for him one-on-one.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope doesn’t have the strength to hang with Edwards down low, while Aaron Gordon doesn’t have the foot speed to stay with him on the perimeter.
The Nuggets need to try to get the ball out of Edwards’ hands.
Karl-Anthony Towns finished Game 1 with 20 points in 31 minutes, but his foul trouble limited his overall impact.
However, Naz Reid had 16 points on 7-of-11 shooting from the bench, and the Wolves have a real luxury with their depth in this series against a Denver team whose bench has been a weakness.
Towns and Reid will need to continue scoring effectively to help support Edwards.
Nugget analysis
Nikola Jokic is likely on track to win his third MVP award this season. While facing Rudy Gobert, the expected Defensive Player of the Year, he still finished with 32 points on 11 of 25 shooting in the first game. He also recorded eight rebounds and nine assists.
He’ll need more help from his teammates in Game 2, namely Jamal Murray, who was held scoreless in the first half and finished with just 17 points while Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker played terrific defense against him.
Murray is still dealing with a calf strain that has made him questionable in recent games, and he will need to continue to fight.
Michael Porter Jr. raised his game in the postseason, averaging 22.3 points on 54-50-74 shooting. Despite his family struggles, Porter has focused on the court and is playing the best basketball of his career.
With Gobert on Jokic and McDaniels on Murray, Porter should continue to get opportunities against smaller defenders after scoring 20 points in the opener.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction
(10 p.m. ET, TNT)
The T-Wolves didn’t have Reid or McDaniels last year — when they lost in the first round to the Nuggets in five games — and both made a significant impact in Game 1.
McDaniels missed all seven of his shots from the field and was held scoreless, but he pulled down eight rebounds and played excellent defense. Reid had 16 points coming off the bench and his late production was key to securing the victory.
However, expect the Nuggets to make the necessary adjustments to pull out a win in Game 2.
Home favorites are 50-35-1 ATS (58.8%) in Game 2 after losing Game 1 as a favorite, which is good for a 12.2% ROI. This trend is also currently on an 8-2 streak over the last 10 games.
Bet on the NBA?
It’s telling that the line for Game 1 closed at Nuggets -4.5 and Denver was favored by 5.5 points in Game 2 after a loss.
I guess that’s because the Timberwolves only won by seven after shooting 71 percent in the second half, and bookmakers should expect that to come back to Earth Monday night.
I will buy the reigning champions from this location every time and live with the results.
Take: Nuggets -5.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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